我国生猪产业韧性水平测度、影响因素及提升策略  

Measuring the resilience level,influencing factors and improvement strategies of China's pig industry

作　　者：郑瑞强[1] 章清 黄璜 翟玉 ZHENG Ruiqiang;ZHANG Qing;HUANG Huang;ZHAI Yu(School of Economics and Management,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学经济管理学院,南昌330045

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2024年第24期9-15,共7页Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJL085);赣鄱俊才支持项目(GPJC-2023);江西省生猪产业技术体系建设项目(JXARS-01)。

摘　　要：为了测度与评价我国30个省份(自治区、直辖市)生猪产业韧性水平,并探究影响生猪产业韧性的主要因素,本研究基于2000—2023年生猪产业面板数据从韧性的抵抗能力、恢复能力、创新能力和再组织能力4个维度出发,构建生猪产业韧性综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法对生猪产业韧性水平进行测度与评价,使用指标障碍度模型找出影响生猪产业韧性的主要因素,利用耦合协调模型研究上述生猪产业韧性之间的耦合协调趋势。结果表明:2000—2023年,我国生猪产业韧性综合指数总体上呈波动式的增长;生猪产业韧性的抵抗能力和恢复能力障碍度是影响我国生猪产业韧性提升的主要因素,主要受到财政资金、料重比、猪肉消费能力、猪肉产量及猪肉进口数量等影响;生猪产业韧性的抵抗能力、恢复能力、创新能力和再组织能力的耦合协调度指数呈波动增长趋势,仍有提高余地。据此笔者建议完善生猪产业发展政策,提高生猪产业生产效率;强化全产业链协同整合,重视产业绿色可持续发展;强化产业与环境的耦合协调,营造产业发展良好氛围。In order to measure and evaluate the resilience of pig industry across 30 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities) in China and explore its main influencing factors, this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for pig industry resilience based on the pig industry panel data from 2000 to 2023. The assessment was approached from four dimensions: resistance capacity, recovery capacity, innovation capacity and reorganization capacity. The entropy method was used to measure and evaluate the resilience level of the pig industry, while the indicator barrier model identified the main factors affecting its resilience. Additionally, a coupling coordination model was used to investigate the coupling coordination trend among resistance capacity, recovery capacity, innovation capacity and reorganization capacity of the pig industry. The results showed that from 2000 to 2023, the comprehensive resilience index of China's pig industry showed a generally fluctuating growth trend. The barriers in resistance and recovery capacities were the primary factors affecting the enhancement of resilience in the pig industry, which were mainly influenced by the fiscal funding, feed-to-weight ratio, pork consumption capacity, pork production, and the volume of pork imports. The coupling coordination degree index among the resistance, recovery, innovation, and reorganization capacities of the pig industry exhibited a fluctuating growth trend, indicating room for improvement. Accordingly, the author suggested enhancing the development policies for the pig industry to improve the production efficiency, strengthening the collaborative integration of the entire industrial chain while emphasizing green and sustainable development, and reinforcing the coupling coordination between the industry and the environment to foster a favorable development atmosphere.

关 键 词：生猪产业 产业韧性 指标障碍度 韧性综合指数 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]