多斑矢车菊在我国的适生性分析及入侵风险评估  

Potential geographic distribution and risk analysis of Centaurea australis in China

作　　者：袁俊杰 龙阳 李凯兵 徐晗[3] 虞赟 袁淑珍 Yuan Junjie;Long Yang;Li Kaibing;Xu Han;Yu Yun;Yuan Shuzhen(Zhanjiang Customs Technology Center,Zhanjiang Guangdong 524000,China;Foshan Customs,Foshan Guangdong 528000,China;Chinese Academy of Inspection and Quarantine,Beijing 100000,China;Fuzhou Customs Technology Center,Fuzhou Fujian 350003,China;Erlian Customs Technology Center,Erlianhaote Neimenggu 012600,China)

机构地区：[1]湛江海关技术中心,广东湛江524000 [2]佛山海关,广东佛山528000 [3]中国检验检疫科学研究院,北京100000 [4]福州海关技术中心,福建福州350003 [5]二连海关技术中心,内蒙古二连浩特012600

出　　处：《中国植保导刊》2024年第11期91-96,共6页China Plant Protection

基　　金：海关总署科研项目(2022HK120)。

摘　　要：分析危险性杂草多斑矢车菊在我国的适生性,预测其在国内的潜在分布区,评估其侵入风险,可为相关的预警、检疫工作提供依据。利用MaxEnt模型对多斑矢车菊在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,并采用多指标赋值法对其入侵我国的风险进行定量分析。结果显示,多斑矢车菊在我国的潜在适生区占比达26.13%,其高度、中度、低度适生区面积分别为1.48万、44.81万、204.61万km^(2)。综合评估其危险性,入侵风险值R=2.16,处于高度危险水平,应提高警惕。The aim of this study is to establish a theoretical basis for the early warning and control of Centaurea australis Pancic ex A.Kern.by analyzing and predicting its potential geographic distribution and risk assessment in China.A MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of C.australis in China,and a multi-index assignment method was used to quantitatively analyze the risk of its invasion in China.The results showed that the potential habitat area of C.australis in China constituted 26.13% of the total area,with the high,moderate,and low suitable habitat areas accounting for 14,800 km^(2),448,100 km^(2),and 2,0461,000 km^(2),respectively.The comprehensive risk assessment score for this weed was 2.16,indicating that it is at a high risk level and therefore requires attention.

关 键 词：多斑矢车菊 潜在适生区 入侵风险 

分 类 号：S41-30[农业科学—植物保护]