中国省域能源消费碳排放强度的时空演变及影响因素研究  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Carbon Emission Intensity of Energy Consumption in Provincial Areas of China and the Influencing Factors

作　　者：商燕 奥布力·塔力普 娜迪拉·阿不都热苏力 SHANG Yan;AOBULI·Talipu;NADILA·Abuduresuli(Business School,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi,Xinjiang,830017,China;Research Center for High Quality Industrial Development in the Core Area of the Silk Road Economic Belt,Urumqi,Xinjiang,830017,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学商学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]丝绸之路经济带核心区产业高质量发展研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《新疆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2025年第1期11-17,共7页Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(22XJY037)。

摘　　要：文章利用2005—2021年我国30个省份能源消费和碳排放数据,探讨了我国省域尺度碳排放强度的时空演变特征,运用LMDI方法将碳排放分解成多因素影响的累计贡献值,重点研究第一产业、第二产业、第三产业对能源消费碳排放的影响,对能源消费碳排放主要影响因素进行分析。研究结果表明:(1)从时间特征看,全国2005—2021年碳排放强度总体上呈波动上升趋势,增速逐渐放缓;(2)从空间格局特征分析看,全国碳排放较强的地区主要集中于西部地区;(3)经济发展、城镇化、能源强度结构效应、人口规模是促进碳排放的主要因素;(4)能源消费强度效应、产业结构是抑制碳排放的主要因素。因此,提高能源利用效率,优化能源结构和产业结构,走低碳城市化道路以及实行节能减排省区联动策略是推动我国实现节能减排目标的重要途径。Based on the energy consumption and carbon emission data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021,this article explores the characteristics of the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emission intensity at the provincial level in China,applies the LMDI method to decompose the carbon emission into the cumulative contribution value of the influence of multiple factors,and focuses on the integration of the influencing roles of the primary,secondary,and tertiary industries on the carbon emission of energy consumption and the analyzes the main influencing factors of the energy consumption carbon emission.The results of the study show that:(1)From the perspective of time characteristics,the national carbon emission intensity from 2005 to 2021 generally shows an upward trend with a gradual slowdown in the growth rate.(2)From the perspective of spatial pattern,the regions with stronger carbon emission intensity are mainly concentrated in the western region.(3)Economic development factors,urbanization factors,energy intensity structure effect,population size factors are the main factors promoting carbon emissions.(4)Energy consumption intensity effect,industrial structure factors are the main factors inhibiting carbon emissions.Therefore,improving energy use efficiency,optimizing energy structure and industrial structure,taking the road of low-carbon urbanization,as well as implementing the strategy of linkage of energy-saving and emission reduction provinces and regions is an important way to promote China's energy-saving and emission reduction goals.

关 键 词：能源消费 碳排放强度 LMDI模型 时空格局特征 产业贡献 低碳经济 

分 类 号：F407.21[经济管理—产业经济]