全球大豆贸易格局演变及其对中国的启示  

Dynamics of global soybean trade networks and its implications for China

作　　者：李玉莹 Li Yuying(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves/Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Grain Circulation and Safety,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院/现代粮食流通与安全协同创新中心,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《粮食科技与经济》2024年第5期1-9,共9页Food Science And Technology And Economy

基　　金：国家服务特殊需求博士人才科研专项课题(LYYXW23002)。

摘　　要：当前国际经济形势复杂多变,为探索稳固中国大豆进口贸易关系的可行途径,基于1996-2022年全球大豆贸易数据,采用复杂网络分析方法研究了全球大豆贸易网络格局演变及中国大豆贸易网络特征。研究结果表明:全球大豆贸易网络变化显著,新兴大豆生产国缓慢发展,核心国相对固定,世界大豆贸易由出口国(地区)稳定主导;世界经济形势及中国贸易政策的波动对全球和中国大豆贸易网络的短期影响较大;目前中国为世界第一大进口国,进口来源较为集中,主要进口来源国对中国大豆市场的依赖程度在不断提升但相对较低。未来一方面中国可通过关注核心节点和核心中介国家的大豆贸易发展动向,健全大豆贸易风险预警与监测体系,建立快速反应机制;另一方面,中国可借助自身在大豆贸易网络中的核心地位,合理利用大豆关税等贸易政策,巩固现有的大豆贸易合作伙伴关系,并积极开拓与邻近国家及新兴大豆生产国之间的大豆贸易合作,以打造更加多元高效稳定的大豆进口贸易网络。The present international economic situation is complex and volatile,in order to explore feasible ways to stabilize China's soybean import trade relations,this paper,based on the global soybean trade data from 1996-2022,uses a complex networks analysis method to evaluate the dynamics of global soybean trade networks and to identify the characteristics of China's soybean trade networks.The research results showed that the global soybean trade networks has changed significantly,with the slow development of emerging soybean producing countries,the core countries relatively fixed,and the world soybean trade dominated by the stability of exporting countries(regions);fluctuations in the world economic situation and China's trade policy have a large short-term impact on global and China's soybean trade networks;at present,China is the world's largest importer,the source of imports is more centralized,and China's main source of imports of China's soybean market dependence on China's degree of increasing but relatively low.In the future,on the one hand,China can pay attention to the core nodes and core intermediary countries of soybean trade development trends,improve the soybean trade risk early warning and monitoring system,and establish a rapid response mechanism;on the other hand,China can take advantage of its core position in the soybean trade networks,the rational use of tariffs and other trade policies,consolidate existing soybean trade partnerships,and actively develop soybean trade cooperation with neighboring countries and emerging soybean producers,in order to create a more diversified,efficient and stable soybean import trade networks.

关 键 词：大豆贸易 复杂网络分析 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F746[经济管理—国际贸易] F316.11[经济管理—产业经济]