某大型公立医院人力资源组合预测模型构建及应用研究  

Construction and application of combination forecasting model for human resources in a large public hospital

作　　者：谢静 成梓榕 雷莉媛[1] 杨翠[1] XIE Jing;CHENG Zirong;LEI Liyuan;YANG Cui(Operation Management Department,West China Hospital,Sichuan University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,P.R.China;Institute for Hospital Management of Tsinghua University/Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518055,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西医院运营管理部,成都610041 [2]清华大学医院管理研究院清华大学深圳国际研究生院,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《华西医学》2024年第12期1854-1859,共6页West China Medical Journal

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目(2020JDR0101)。

摘　　要：目的了解某大型公立医院的卫生人力资源现状,预测符合该医院发展的人力资源需求量,为该大型公立医院高质量发展所需的人力资源规划提供参考依据和合理建议。方法在灰色模型和差分自回归移动平均模型的基础上,通过方差倒数法进行权重分配建立组合模型,分别预测2024年—2026年某大型公立医院不同类型的卫生人力资源需求量,比较不同模型预测的精度。结果组合模型预测的该医院2026年卫生人力资源需求总人数、卫生技术人员数量、医师数量、护理人员数量和技师数量分别为17654、13041、4389、6198、2264人,2024年—2026年年均增长率分别为5.54%、5.55%、5.37%、4.27%、5.60%。与两种单项预测模型相比,组合模型预测总人数、护理人员数量、技师数量的平均绝对误差、均方误差和平均绝对百分比误差均最小,预测卫生技术人员的平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差最小,预测医师数量的平均绝对误差最小。结论与单项预测模型相比,组合模型系统误差较小,预测效果较好。该大型公立医院的总人数、卫生技术人员、医师、护理人员、技师的绝对需求量将持续增加,提前进行人员规划并做好储备是医院高质量发展的关键。Objective To understand the current status of healthcare human resources(HHR)in a large public hospital,predict the HHR demand aligned with the development of the hospital,and provide reference basis and feasible solutions for HHR planning for high-quality development of the large public hospital.Methods Based on grey model and auto regressive integrated moving average model,a variance reciprocal method for weight allocation was applied to set up the combination forecasting model.Different types of HHR demand of the large public hospital from 2024 to 2026 were predicted and the accuracies of the three different model predictions were compared.Results The numbers of total personnel,health technical personnel,physicians,nurses,and technicians predicted by the combination forecasting model for 2026 were 17654,13041,4389,6198,and 2264,respectively.The corresponding average annual growth rates from 2024 to 2026 were 5.54%,5.55%,5.37%,4.27%,and 5.60%,respectively.Compared with the two single forecasting models,the combination forecasting model had the smallest average absolute errors,mean squared errors,and mean absolute percentage errors for predicting the numbers of total personnel,nurses,and technicians.It also had the smallest average absolute error and mean absolute percentage error for predicting the number of health technical personnel,and the smallest average absolute error for predicting the number of physicians.Conclusions Compared with the single forecasting model,the combination forecasting model shows fewer system errors and better predictive results.The demand for total personnel,health technical personnel,physicians,nurses,and technicians of this large public hospital will continue to increase,so planning and reserving staff in advance is a key to high-quality development of the hospital.

关 键 词：人力资源 大型公立医院 灰色模型 差分自回归移动平均模型 组合预测 

分 类 号：R197.322[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]