淮河流域地表温度时空变化及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of spatial-temporal variation and driving factors of surface temperature in the Huai River Basin

作　　者：董世杰 安慧[1,2] 吴海林[1,2] DONG Shijie;AN Hui;WU Hailin(Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydropower Engineering Construction and Management,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China;College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《测绘科学》2024年第10期175-188,共14页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72004116)。

摘　　要：针对以河流流域为单元的地表温度时空变化研究较少的问题,该文基于MOD11A2数据,采用一元线性回归法和显著性检验分析了2001—2020年淮河流域年、季地表温度时空变化特征;运用相关性分析研究了地表温度与气候因素和人类活动的相关性,在此基础上利用残差分析计算相应贡献度。结果表明:淮河流域年均地表温度为15.88℃,升温区面积占比大于90%;2001—2020年淮河流域的气温、NDVI和降水量与地表温度决定系数R^(2)分别为0.851,0.544和0.416,耕地面积和建筑用地面积的决定系数R^(2)分别0.452和0.317;根据残差分析结果,气候因素和人类活动对淮河流域整体地表温度变化的贡献度分别为53.2%和46.8%。研究发现:淮河流域地表温度呈上升趋势,季节差异较大;气候因素对淮河流域地表温度的影响较大且是多数城市的主导因素;研究结果可为协调淮河流域环境保护和城镇发展提供参考。Addressing the issue of lack of research on the spatiotemporal variation of surface temperature based on river basins,this paper was conducted based on MOD11A2 data,and the spatiotemporal variations in surface temperature on an annual and seasonal basis from 2001 to 2020 in the Huai River Basin were analyzed using simple linear regression and significance testing.The correlations between surface temperature and climatic factors as well as human activities,along with their respective contributions,were investigated through correlation and residual analysis.It was revealed that the average annual surface temperature was 15.88℃,with over 90%of the area experiencing a warming trend.The coefficients of determination(R^(2))for air temperature,NDVI,and precipitation in relation to surface temperature from 2001 to 2020 were 0.851,0.544,and 0.416,individually,while the R^(2) for cultivated land area and built-up land area were 0.452 and 0.317,respectively.Residual analysis showed that climatic factors and human activities contributed 53.2%and 46.8%,individually,to the overall change in surface temperature in the Huai River Basin.The experiments indicated an upward trend in surface temperature with significant seasonal variations;climatic factors were found to have a momentous impact and were the dominant factors in the variation of surface temperature across most cities in the basin.The results can provide references for coordinating environmental protection and urban development.

关 键 词：地表温度 气候变化 土地利用 淮河流域 

分 类 号：P208.2[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]