中国县域乡村人口收缩的空间识别及驱动机制:基于斑块尺度的研究  

Patch-scale measurement based spatial identification and driving mechanism of population shrinkage in rural areas within counties in China

作　　者：何青松 查莹莹 HE Qingsong;ZHA Yingying(College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报》2024年第6期39-52,共14页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371424,42001334);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2023AFB630)。

摘　　要：分析县域乡村地区收缩空间格局差异及其影响因素,为剖析县域内人地关系、促进资源高效集约利用提供实证依据及科学指导。利用农村居民点的居民点图斑和高分辨率人口分布数据LandScan等具体地理信息数据,创新性地构建人口收缩指数指标,以此来系统性检测2000—2020年我国农村居民点在斑块尺度上的人口密度动态变化情况,并全面分析全国2847个县域范围内农村居民点人口收缩的空间分布特点。结果显示:收缩斑块在淮河流域突出集中,西部地区居民点以轻度收缩为主,东部沿海居民点多为重度收缩。在县域层面,乡村人口收缩现象显示出显著的地域差异性,形成了“两带多集聚区”的空间格局特征,不同行政区划类型的县(市)呈现出差异化的人口收缩特性。城镇化水平(UR)、教育服务水平(EDU)、农业机械化水平(ARG)是我国县域乡村内部收缩最显著的3个影响因素。交互作用层面,教育服务水平和农村收入水平的组合作用解释力最强。The differences in spatial patterns of population shrinkage in rural areas within counties and their influencing factors were analyzed to provide empirical evidence and scientific guidance for analyzing the relationship between population and land in rural areas within counties and promoting efficient and intensive use of resources.The precise geographic data including residential patches of rural settlements and LandScan-a high-resolution population distribution dataset-were used to innovatively construct a population shrinkage index.This index was used systematically to detect the dynamic changes in population density of rural areas in China at the patch scale from 2000 to 2020.The spatial patterns of population shrinkage in rural areas across 2847 counties in China was comprehensively analyzed.The results showed that patches of population shrinkage were prominently concentrated in the Huaihe River Basin,with mild shrinkage mainly observed in rural areas in the western region and severe shrinkage in rural areas along the eastern coast.The population shrinkage in rural areas within counties had significant regional differences,forming a spatial pattern of“two belts and multiple agglomerations”.Counties(cities)with different administrative divisions exhibited differentiated characteristics of population shrinkage.Urbanization(UR),education service(EDU),and agricultural mechanization(ARG)were the three pivotal factors affecting the internal population shrinkage in rural areas within counties in China.The interplay between educational service and rural income had the strongest explanatory power.It will provide a robust empirical foundation and scientific direction for dissecting the population-land nexus within counties,refining the plans for rural settlement,and advocating for the efficient,intensive utilization of resources.

关 键 词：乡村收缩 斑块尺度 空间格局 地理探测器 

分 类 号：TU982.5[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]