淮河流域安徽段水生态安全时空演化及预测研究  

Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of water ecological security in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin

作　　者：周建 何刚[1] ZHOU Jian;HE Gan(College of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science&Technology,Huainan Anhui 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2024年第6期28-36,共9页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72271005);安徽省哲学社科规划项目(AHSKY2022D124)。

摘　　要：为合理开展淮河流域安徽段水生态安全评价研究,分析其时空演化规律和未来变化趋势。应用DPSIR模型构建淮河流域安徽段水生态安全评价指标体系,运用CRITIC赋权与秩和比法计算2013—2022年淮河流域安徽段水生态安全指数,使用核密度和标准差椭圆探究其时空演化规律,对比多种方法预测精度,选择GM-ARIMA模型预测水生态安全发展趋势。结果表明:2013—2022年,淮河流域安徽段水生态安全指数呈平稳上升趋势,由0.420增长至0.554;从时空演变特征上看,水生态安全水平逐渐从中心向南北方迁移,南北方各市水生态安全水平差距进一步拉大;2023—2027年,水生态安全指数预测结果呈上升趋势,且淮河以南各市水生态安全水平高于淮河以北各市。In order to carry out reasonable evaluation of water ecological security in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin,the spatio-temporal evolution law and future change trend were analyzed.The DPSIR model was applied to construct the evaluation index system of water ecological security in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin,the weight of CRITIC and the rank sum ratio method were applied to calculate the water ecological security index of the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin from 2013 to 2022,the spatio-temporal evolution rule was explored by using the kernel density and standard deviation ellipse,and the prediction accuracy of various methods was compared.The GM-ARIMA model was selected to predict the development trend of water ecological security.The results showed that from 2013 to 2022,the water ecological security index of Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin increased steadily from 0.420 to 0.554.From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution,the water ecological security level gradually moved from the center to the north and south,and the gap between the water ecological security level in the south and north was further widened.From 2023 to 2027,the prediction results of water ecological security index show an upward trend,and the water ecological security level of the cities south of the Huai River is higher than that of the cities north of the Huaihe River.

关 键 词：水生态安全 DPSIR模型 时空演化特征 预测 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]