低碳城市试点政策对产业结构升级的影响效应研究  

Research on the Effect of Low-carbon City Pilot Policy on Industrial Structure Upgrading

作　　者：彭林 PENG Lin(School of Economics and Management,Chuzhou University,Chuzhou Anhui 239000)

机构地区：[1]滁州学院经济与管理学院,安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《湖南财政经济学院学报》2024年第6期79-89,共11页Journal of Hunan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国高端制造业价值链跃迁路径研究:多重嵌入的视角”(项目编号:71773115);2023年滁州市第七届社科对策应用课题“数字经济赋能滁州市制造业高质量发展机理及路径研究”(项目编号:B2023012)。

摘　　要：为推进绿色低碳发展,国家发改委分三批次开展了低碳城市试点工作,低碳城市试点政策实施的关键是能否推动试点城市淘汰高污染生产企业。为此,以低碳城市试点政策为准自然实验构建多时点双重差分模型,基于2009—2021年中国281个地级市面板数据探讨低碳城市试点政策对产业结构升级的影响。研究表明,低碳城市试点政策显著促进了产业结构升级,且经过平行性趋势检验、PSM-DID检验、安慰剂检验等一系列稳健性检验后,结论依旧成立。异质性分析表明,低碳城市试点政策对产业结构升级的影响在行政级别更高的城市更加明显;机制研究表明,低碳城市试点政策通过促进技术创新和减少煤炭能源消费进而对城市产业结构升级产生影响,而政府科技投入、城镇化和人力资本聚集效应的中介作用不显著。In order to promote green and low-carbon development,the National Development and Reform Commission has carried out low-carbon city pilot work in three batches,and the key to the implementation of the low-carbon city pilot policy is whether it can promote the pilot cities to eliminate highly polluting production enterprises.To this end,a multi-temporal double-difference model is constructed based on a quasi-natural experiment with the low-carbon city pilot policy to explore the impact of the low-carbon city pilot policy on the upgrading of industrial structure based on the panel data of 281 prefectural-level cities in China from 2009 to 2021.The study results show that the low-carbon city pilot policy significantly promotes industrial structure upgrading,and the conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests such as the parallelism trend test,PSM-DID test,and placebo test.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of the pilot low-carbon city policy on industrial structure upgrading is more obvious in cities with higher administrative levels;mechanism study shows that the pilot low-carbon city policy influences urban industrial structure upgrading by promoting technological innovation and reducing coal energy consumption,while the mediating effects of government scientific and technological inputs,urbanization,and human capital agglomeration are not significant.

关 键 词：低碳城市试点政策 产业结构升级 多时点双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F062[经济管理—政治经济学]