财政货币政策对不同周期成分的经济效应差异研究——频域分解和反事实分析视角  

The Differences Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on Different Cycle Components--Based on Frequency Domain Heterogeneity Analysis

作　　者：林建浩[1] 邱韵 陈良源 Jianhao Lin;Yun Qiu;Liangyuan Chen(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-Sun University;International School of Business&Finance,Sun Yat-Sun University)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院 [2]中山大学国际金融学院

出　　处：《经济学报》2024年第4期1-33,共33页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“‘三重压力’下‘双支柱’调控的政策效应评估与优化研究”(22AZD121)的资助。

摘　　要：财政政策和货币政策作为主要的宏观调控手段,需要针对宏观经济的不同周期成分进行精准施策。与发达经济体以经济周期波动(business cycle fluctuation)为主不同,中国的宏观经济是相对低频的中长周期波动(medium-term and long-term cycle fluctuation)占主导。本文基于历史数据进行反事实分析和频谱方差分解,考察财政和货币政策对宏观经济不同周期成分的异质性影响。研究发现:对于产出而言,财政政策冲击和货币政策冲击均对经济周期成分变动具有一定的贡献度,除此之外,货币政策冲击对更为低频的中长周期成分和长期趋势成分变动具有较高贡献度;对于通胀而言,货币政策冲击对不同周期成分均具有高贡献度,而财政政策冲击的贡献度相对较弱。本文研究结论表明科学识别宏观经济波动不同周期成分的重要性,以及讨论财政和货币政策的协调配合必须考虑不同周期成分的差异。As the main tools of macroeconomic management,fiscal policy and monetary policy need to implement different policies according to different components of economic fluctuations.Unlike developed countries,whose macro-economies are dominated by business cycle fluctuations,China's macro-economy is dominated by relatively low-frequency medium-term and long-term cycle fluctuations.Based on counterfactual analysis and spectral variance decomposition using historical data,this paper examines the heterogeneous effects of fiscal and monetary policies on different components of macroeconomic volatility.The result of research shows that in terms of output,both fiscal policy and monetary policy shocks contribute to the changes of the business cycle fluctuations.In addition,fiscal policy can also explain the components of higher frequency fluctuations,while monetary policy shocks also contribute to the changes of the more low-frequency medium-long cycle fluctuations.Regarding inflation,monetary policy shocks have a high contribution to different cyclical components,while the contribution of fiscal policy shocks is relatively weak.The research findings of this article highlight the importance of scientifically identifying different cyclical components in macroeconomic fluctuations and emphasize the need to consider the differences in cyclical components when discussing the coordination and cooperation between fiscal and monetary policies.

关 键 词：宏观经济波动 周期分解 中长周期 财政政策 货币政策 

分 类 号：F812.0[经济管理—财政学] F822.0F123.16