1960—2100年间福建省极端降雨事件的历史特征与未来趋势  

Historical Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Rainfall Eventsin Fujian Province During 1960—2100

作　　者：周翔 ZHOU Xiang(Disaster Reduction Center of Fujian Province,Fuzhou Fujian 350024,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省减灾中心,福州350024

出　　处：《西华师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2025年第1期65-71,共7页Journal of China West Normal University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J01627)。

摘　　要：气候变化导致全球极端降水事件频率增加,极端降水引发洪涝灾害、滑坡及泥石流等次生自然灾害。研究极端降水时空演变模式,对提高适应气候变化极为重要。以福建省为研究区,选取历史时期(1960—2020年)和未来时期(2020—2100年)为研究期,基于第99百分位数固定阈值法提取极端降水事件,结合非参数的Sen-MK趋势分析法,探究多种排放情景下极端降水的空间分布规律和变化趋势。研究结果表明:从极端降雨事件频次和强度上看,历史时期内研究区极端降水分布呈现由东南沿海向内陆减少的趋势,研究区总体上呈现极端降水频次、强度增加的趋势。未来时期内不同排放情景下,福建省极端降水的频次和强度呈现不同程度的增加,其中SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下结果十分接近,而SSP5-8.5高排放情景下的极端降水变化明显,特别是2060年之后发生的频次和强度明显增加。为有效防范极端降水可能引发的各种灾害,评估未来气候情景下极端降水的分布特征和变化趋势意义重大。Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall events around the world,and extreme rainfalls lead to secondary natural disasters such as floods,landslides and debris flows.It is of great importance to study the spatial and temporal evolution model of extreme rainfalls to improve the adaptation to climate change.Taking Fujian province as the research area and the historical period(1960—2020)and future period(2020—2100)as the research periods,this study extracted extreme rainfall events with the fixed threshold method of the 99th quantile and explored the spatial distribution pattern and trend of extreme rainfalls under various emission scenarios in Fujian province with Sen-MK trend analysis method.The results indicate that:in terms of frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events,the distribution of extreme rainfalls in the research area presents a decreasing trend from the southeast coast to the inland during the historical period,while the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls in the whole region show an increasing trend;the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls in Fujian province increase in different degrees under different emission scenarios in future period,among which the results in SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios are very similar,while the extreme rainfalls under SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario change obviously,with an significant increase in frequency and intensity,especially after 2060.Therefore,it is significant to evaluate the distribution characteristics and trends of extreme rainfalls under future climate scenarios in order to effectively prevent various disasters that may be caused by extreme rainfall events.

关 键 词：福建省 极端降水 分位数 时空 阈值 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]