自由贸易试验区经济效应与影响路径分析——以中国(四川)自贸试验区为例  

Analysis of the Economic Effects and Influence Paths of Free Trade Pilot Zones:A Case Study of the China(Sichuan)Pilot Free Trade Zone

作　　者：谢佳春[1] 马靓丽 何俊霖 XIE Jiachun;MA Liangli;HE Junlin

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学统计与数学学院

出　　处：《当代经济》2025年第1期92-103,共12页Contemporary Economics

基　　金：云南省兴滇英才支持计划青年人才专项项目,数字乡村视角下乡村数字经济与乡村振兴的耦合协调发展研究,编号:XDYC-QNRC-2022-0519;云南省科技厅科技计划基础研究专项面上项目,基于政策文献量化分析的自由贸易试验区数字贸易发展与提升路径研究,编号:202301AT070418;教育部人文社会科学规划研究项目,西南边疆民族地区农民数字素养促进农业新质生产力的作用机制与实现路径研究,编号:24XJA790004。

摘　　要：中国(四川)自由贸易试验区作为首批内陆型自贸区之一,自2017年4月揭牌设立以来在完成改革试验任务、制度创新成果推广、开放引领作用、营商环境优化等方面均取得显著成效,并极大地促进了四川地区经济增长。采用合成控制法评估设立四川自贸区的经济效应,并从消费、外商直接投资和进出口贸易三个渠道分析自贸区影响地区经济增长的路径,在此基础上再进行双重差分估计和变换处理组单元与控制组单元的安慰剂检验。实证结果表明,四川自贸区设立对当地经济增长具有显著的正向推动作用,且影响路径是外商直接投资和进出口贸易,相比而言通过提升消费来促进四川地区经济增长的影响统计意义上并不显著。As one of the first inland Free Trade Zones in China,the China(Sichuan)Pilot Free Trade Zone has achieved remarkable results since its establishment in April 2017.It has successfully fulfilled reform and experimental tasks,promoted institutional innovations,enhanced openness,optimized the business environment,and contributed significantly to economic growth in Sichuan.This paper employs the synthetic control method to assess the economic effects of establishing the China(Sichuan)Pilot Free Trade Zone and analyzes the channels through which the Free Trade Zone affects regional economic growth:through three channels:consumption,foreign direct investment,and import-export trade.Subsequently,a difference-indifferences(DID)estimation and a placebo test,conducted by transforming the treatment and controlunits,are used for further analysis.The DID estimation results are highly consistent with those obtained from the synthetic control method.The empirical findings indicate that the establishment of the China(Sichuan)Pilot Free Trade Zone has had a significant positive impact on local economic growth,primarily through foreign direct investment and import-export trade.In contrast,the effect of promoting economic growth through increased consumption in Sichuan is not statistically significant.These findings provide important insights for effectively deploying future efforts related to free trade zones.

关 键 词：自由贸易试验区 经济效应 合成控制法 双重差分法 安慰剂检验 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]