台风灾害影响的产业链跨部门传导机制——以台风“天鸽”为例  

Intersectoral Transmission Mechanism of Typhoon Disaster Impacts across Economic Supply Chains——A Case Study of Typhoon Hato

作　　者：林舒婷 夏琳琳 王晓明 梁赛[1] LIN Shuting;XIA Linlin;WANG Xiaoming;LIANG Sai(Guangdong Basic Research Center of Excellence for Ecological Security and Green Development,Key Laboratory for City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development of the Ministry of Education,School of Ecology,Environment and Resources,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510006,China;State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院湾区生态安全与绿色发展基础研究卓越中心大湾区城市环境安全与绿色发展教育部重点实验室,广东广州510006 [2]中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《灾害学》2025年第1期213-219,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化对社会经济系统的影响机制与风险评估”(72293602);“区域生态环境问题系统分析”(52325005);“极端天气对营养安全的跨区域级联影响”(12411530116).

摘　　要：极端天气事件会通过产业链对经济系统产生级联影响,现有研究聚焦极端天气事件影响评估,但仍未明晰极端天气事件影响在经济系统产业链的跨部门传导机制。该文通过整合自适应区域投入产出模型、结构路径分析和介数中心性分析方法,以台风“天鸽”为例,揭示了台风灾害影响对广东省产业链的跨部门传导机制。研究发现,台风“天鸽”造成广东省经济损失共310亿元,其中间接损失占13%。在台风灾害发生阶段,造成经济损失的关键传导路径与建筑业紧密相关,如非金属矿物制品业→建筑业;关键传输部门包括通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备制造业,金属冶炼和压延加工业等;典型的关键部门间关联包括金属冶炼和压延加工业→建筑业等。在重建阶段,金属矿采选业、金融业、房地产业等部门从重建需求中获得较多经济收益。研究为提高产业链适应能力和灾后资金分配提供决策支持。Extreme weather events have cascading impacts on the economic system through the supply chain.Existing studies focus on the impacts assessment of extreme weather events.However,the intersectoral transmission mechanism of the impact of extreme weather events across the economic supply chains remains unclear.Taking Typhoon Hato as a case,based on integration of the adaptive regional input-output model,structural path analysis and betweenness centrality,the intersectoral transmission mechanism of typhoon impacts on Guangdong province across the supply chain is revealed.Results show that Typhoon Hato has led to a total of CNY 31 billion of economic losses to Guangdong province,of which indirect losses accounted for 13%.During the occurrence of typhoon disasters,the critical transmission paths of economic losses are closely related to the construction industry,such as the nonmetal products industry→construction industry.Key transmission sectors include the electronic equipment industry as well as the metallurgy industry.Typical intersectoral links include the metallurgy industry→construction industry.With the advancement of the reconstruction work,the metal mining,financial,and real estate sectors would reap economic benefits from the reconstruction demand.This study can point out the focus of policy decision-making on strengthening intersectoral cooperation to improve the disaster adaptability of the supply chain and the allocation of post-disaster reconstruction funds.

关 键 词：极端天气事件 台风 经济影响 投入产出分析 产业链 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X43