不同免疫策略对六安市流行性腮腺炎发病影响的中断时间序列分析  

Impact of different immunization strategies on mumps incidence in Lu′an:an interrupted time series analysis

作　　者：程凯 胡纯秋[1] 秦伟[2] 王瑶 张欢 CHENG Kai;HU Chunqiu;QIN Wei;WANG Yao;ZHANG Huan(Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene,School of Public Health,Anhui Medical University,Hefei 230032,Anhui Province,China;Lu′an City Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Lu′an 237000,Anhui Province,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院营养与食品卫生学系,合肥230032 [2]六安市疾病预防控制中心,安徽六安237000

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2024年第12期1493-1498,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

摘　　要：目的分析2011—2022年六安市流行性腮腺炎(以下简称“流腮”)流行特征,评价麻腮风疫苗免疫策略调整对流腮发病率的影响。方法收集2011—2022年六安市流腮月发病数据,应用STATA 17.0进行中断序列回归分析,评价1剂次麻腮风疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划时期(expanded program on immunization,EPI)和2剂次麻腮风疫苗纳入EPI时期流腮月发病率变化情况。结果2011—2022年六安市流腮年均发病率为30.19/10万,其中,2012年发病率最高,达到62.22/10万,2022年最低,仅有9.68/10万。5~9岁年龄组年均报告发病率最高,达到173.47/10万。1剂次麻腮风纳入EPI时期总人群发病率平均每月降低0.033/10万(β_(1)=-0.033,t=-3.66,P<0.001),5~9岁年龄组发病率下降最多,平均每月降低0.234/10万(β_(1)=-0.234,t=-4.20,P<0.001),其次是10~14岁年龄组,发病率平均每月降低0.183/10万(β_(1)=-0.183,t=-3.49,P<0.001)。2剂次麻腮风纳入EPI时期,10~14岁年龄组发病率平均每月降低0.019/10万(β_(1)+β3:-0.183+0.164,t=2.98,P=0.003),15岁以上年龄组平均每月下降0.001/10万(β_(1)+β3:-0.008+0.007,t=2.15,P=0.033),0~4岁年龄组发病率平均每月降低0.121/10万(β_(1)+β3:-0.034-0.087,t=-1.01,P=0.316)。结论1剂次麻腮风疫苗免疫策略可持续降低六安市流腮发病率,对5~14岁年龄段的人群效果最为显著,但随着时间推移对高年龄段人群效果减弱,2剂次麻腮风疫苗对人群发病率影响仍需长期观察。Objective To examine the epidemiological trends of mumps in Lu′an betwenn 2011 and 2022,and to assess the effectiveness of various immunization strategies of measles,mumps and rubella combined attenuated live vaccine(MMR)on mumps incidence.Methods The monthly incidence data of mumps in Lu′an from 2011 to 2022 were collected.STATA 17.0 was used to develop an interrupted time series regression model to assess variations in monthly mumps incidence during the one-dose MMR Expanded Program on Immunization period,and the two-dose MMR Expanded Program on Immunization period.Results The average annual incidence of mumps was 30.19 per 100000 population,respectively.The highest rate was 62.22 per 100000 in 2012,but the lowest rate was 9.68 per 100000 in 2022.The children aged 5-9 years had the highest incidence rate of mumps.The interrupted time series regression model showed that mumps incidences decreased by 0.033 per 100000(β_(1)=-0.033,t=-3.66,P<0.001)in one-dose MMR Expanded Program on Immunization period.The incidence decreased in all age groups,with the largest decline observed among children aged 5-9 years old(β_(1)=-0.234,t=-4.20,P<0.001),followed by children aged 10-14 years old(β_(1)=-0.183,t=-3.49,P<0.001).In two-dose MMR Expanded Program on Immunization period,the incidence of children aged 10-14 years old,aged above 15 years old,and aged 0-4 years old decreased 0.019 per 100000(β_(1)+β3:-0.183+0.164,t=2.98,P=0.003)0.001 per 100000(β_(1)+β3:-0.008+0.007,t=2.15,P=0.033)and 0.121 per 100000(β_(1)+β3:-0.034-0.087,t=-1.01,P=0.316),respectively.Conclusions The one doses of MMR into EPI significantly reduced the incidence of mumps in Lu′an,with the largest decline observed among children aged 5-14 years old,but the effect diminishes in older age groups.The impact of the two-dose MMR vaccine immunization strategy on the trend of MMR morbidity necessitates additional investigation.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 发病率 麻腮风疫苗 免疫策略 中断时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学]