长江流域陆地水储量变化及归因研究  

Variation and Attribution of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：熊景华 郭生练[1] 王俊 尹家波[1] 李娜 XIONG Jinghua;GUO Shenglian;WANG Jun;YIN Jiabo;LI Na(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch&Communication Center,Yangtze Power Co.Ltd,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [2]长江电力股份有限公司三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（信息科学版）》2024年第12期2241-2248,共8页Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200305);国家自然科学基金(U20A20317)。

摘　　要：气候变化和人类活动共同影响了长江流域陆地水储量,对中国经济社会、生态环境和粮食安全产生严重威胁。结合重力恢复与气候实验(gravity recovery and climate experiment,GRACE)卫星产品、地面水文观测、陆地水储量统计学模型和水文模型,分析了2002—2021年长江流域陆地水储量异常(terrestrial water storage anomaly,TWSA)的变化及归因。美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心、喷气动力实验室和戈达德航天中心的GRACE mascon产品相对不确定性分别为5 mm、7.2 mm和3.9 mm;融合的GRACE陆地水储量产品与地面观测及流域水资源公报具有良好可比性,相关系数分别为0.59和0.86(p<0.01),但不同子流域的对比情况存在一定差异;统计学模型和水文模型的TWSA分解结果较为一致,均揭示流域TWSA主要受降水影响;而人类活动因素,如水库蓄水和农业灌溉活动,则造成局部地区陆地水储量的明显变化。基于分离后的融合GRACE信号,发现长江流域历史TWSA已经因气候变率和人类活动而发生了明显变化。Objectives:Climate variability and human activity have profoundly altered the terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River basin,which has significantly threatened social economy,ecological environ-ment,and food safety of China.However,the variations and attributions of the terrestrial water storage in the basin has not been comprehensively analyzed.Methods:This paper jointly used the GRACE(gravity re-covery and climate experiment)solutions,field observations,statistical model,and large-scale hydrologi-cal simulation to perform the attribution of terrestrial water storage anomaly(TWSA)variations in the Yangtze River basin from 2002 to 2021.Results:The relative uncertainties of GRACE mascon product from CSR(center for space research at University of Texas,Austin),JPL(jet propulsion laboratory),and GSFC(Goddard space flight center)are 5 mm,7.2 mm,and 3.9 mm,respectively.The merged GRACE product from three institutions based on relative uncertainties present reasonable accuracy by comparing with the in-situ results and water resources bulletins,with the correlation coefficient of 0.59 and 0.86(p<0.01),respectively.Similar partition results are reflected by the statistical and hydrological modeling re-sults,in which the TWSA is mainly controlled by precipitation,while the human factors such as reservoir impoundment and agricultural irrigation can significantly affect the TWSA at the local scale.Conclusions:The historical TWSA of the Yangtze River basin has been altered extensively by climate variability and hu-man activity based on the partitioned merged GRACE solution.

关 键 词：GRACE卫星 陆地水储量 气候变化 人类活动 长江流域 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程] P237[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]