2021—2023内蒙古自治区布鲁氏菌病流行特征与影响因素分析  

Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and influencing factors of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous region,2021-2023

作　　者：朱新文 洪志敏[1] 高永明[2] 王虎虎 ZHU Xin-wen;HONG Zhi-min;GAO Yong-ming;WANG Hu-hu(College of Science,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot,Inner Mongolia 010051,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学理学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2024年第24期4423-4428,4479,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81860605);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2023MS01001);内蒙古自治区直属高校基金科研业务费项目(JY 20220087)。

摘　　要：目的探讨2021—2023年内蒙古自治区人间布鲁氏菌病(布病)的流行特征及气象因素对布病发病率影响的空间变化特征,为其防控和公共卫生资源分配提供科学依据。方法从内蒙古自治区疾病预防控制中心收集了经脱敏处理的2021年1月1日至2023年12月31日的人间布病病例数据,通过描述性分析探究内蒙古自治区布病的三间分布。利用局部自回归混合地理加权回归(Mixed GWR-LSAR)模型逐月分析布病发生的空间自相关性和异质性,并与空间自回归模型、地理加权回归模型和局部自回归地理加权回归模型的拟合效果相比较。结果2021—2023年内蒙古布病病例56483例,3—7月为高发期;男性发病率为53.67/10万,显著高于女性(χ2=25.803,P<0.05);病例职业构成中农民占比最大;41~60岁人群发病率最高(43.60/10万);内蒙古布病发病率呈空间正相关,高发地多集中于东部和西部;Mixed GWR-LSAR模型拟合效果最优;月均风速、气温、气压和蒸发量在各月对布病发病率的影响存在空间差异。结论内蒙古布病流行的季节性、人群和空间分布呈流行病学特征,气象因素在不同月份和地区对布病发病率的影响不同。因此,布病防控策略需具有针对性和区域性,以更有效地降低布病发生风险。Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2023 and the spatial variation of meteorological factors affecting its incidence,providing a scientific basis for prevention,control,and public health resource allocation.Methods The de-identified human brucellosis case data from January 1st,2021 to December 31st,2023,were collected from the Inner Mongolia Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive analysis was used to study three distributions of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia.A mixed local autoregressive geographical weighted regression model analyzed the monthly spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity of brucellosis.The model’s fitting effect was compared with spatial autoregressive,geographical weighted regression,and local autoregressive geographical weighted regression models.Results From 2021 to 2023,56,483 cases of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia,with a peak incidence from March to July.The incidence in males was 53.67 per 100,000,significantly higher than in females(χ2=25.803,P<0.05).Farmers comprised the largest proportion of cases.The highest incidence occurred in people aged 41 to 60(43.60 per 100,000).Brucellosis incidence in Inner Mongolia showed a positive spatial correlation,with high-incidence areas mainly in the east and west.The Mixed GWR-LSAR model had the best fit.The effects of wind speed,temperature,pressure,and evaporation varied spatially.Conclusion Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia exhibited seasonal,demographic,and spatial patterns,with varying meteorological impacts across months and regions.Therefore,prevention and control strategies should be targeted and regional to effectively reduce the risk.

关 键 词：人间布鲁氏菌病 气象因素 空间变化特征 局部自回归混合地理加权回归模型 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R188.2