基于不确定信息融合的多机组核电厂人因事件相关性分析  

Dependence Assessment of Human Failure Events in Multi-unit Nuclear Power Plants Based on Uncertainty Information Fusion

作　　者：王海勇 苏晓燕 钱虹 潘晓磊 WANG Hai-yong;SU Xiao-yan;QIAN Hong;PAN Xiao-lei(School of Automation Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学自动化工程学院,上海200090

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第36期15465-15473,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：上海市青年科技启明星计划(21QA1403400)。

摘　　要：决策树(decision trees, DTs)被广泛用于多机组(multi-unit, MU)核电厂(nuclear power plants, NPPs)的人因相关性分析。然而,DT上的各分支对应的影响因素的状态很少,且专家只能选定其中一种状态,这并不能准确地表达实际情况。为此,在DT的基础上结合D-S证据理论(Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, DSET),提出一种基于不确定信息融合的多机组核电厂人因事件相关性分析方法。首先,通过DSET表达专家意见中的不确定性信息并建立基本概率指派(basic probability assignment, BPA)函数;其次,融合多个BPA函数得到专家群决策结果;最后,根据融合结果及DT得到人因事件的相关性等级并计算联合人误概率。实例分析结果表明:所提方法能够灵活地表达和处理专家评估意见中存在的不确定性,得到更为合理的人因可靠性分析(human reliability analysis, HRA)结果。Decision trees(DTs)are widely used for human dependence assessment in multi-unit(MU)nuclear power plants(NPPs).However,few states of the corresponding influencing factors are provided in DT,and only one state can be selected by experts,which is not confirmed to the actual situation.Thus,the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory(DSET)was used to combine with DT to propose a method for dependence assessment of human failure events(HFEs)in MU-NPP based on uncertainty information fusion.Firstly,the DSET was used to express the uncertain information in experts’judgement,and the basic probability assignment(BPA)was established.Secondly,the group decision result was obtained by fusing the judgment of multiple experts.Finally,the dependence level between HFEs was determined according to DT and fusion judgement,and the joint human error probability could be obtained.The results of case study show that the proposed method can flexibly express and handle uncertainties existing in experts’judgment.It is concluded that the method can achieve more reasonable human reliability analysis(HRA)result.

关 键 词：多机组核电厂(MU-NPP) 相关性分析 决策树(DTs) 证据理论 人因可靠性分析(HRA) 

分 类 号：TL364.5[核科学技术—核技术及应用]