基于云模型的危险品跨境多式联运风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Cross-border Multimodal Transportation of Dangerous Goods Based on Cloud Model

作　　者：伍佳妮[1] 侯晶 石家豪 杨磊[2] WU Jia-ni;HOU Jing;SHI Jia-hao;YANG Lei(School of Economics and Management,Chang’an University,Xi an 710064,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Chang’an University,Xi an 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学经济与管理学院,西安710064 [2]长安大学运输工程学院,西安710064

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第36期15736-15742,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72104037);陕西省社会科学基金(2021D024);陕西省创新能力支撑计划(2024ZC-YBXM-126);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(300102231647)。

摘　　要：跨境运输与多式联运为风险程度本就居高的危险品运输带来了更为复杂的风险环境。为有效地评价危险品跨境多式联运风险,在“人、机、管、环”4M因素(变量)的基础上,将跨境多式联运中的“转运”和“国际关系”两个因素考虑进去,并将这6个因素作为决策问题中的属性;在指标因素具有随机性和模糊性的基础上,运用云模型实现定性概念与定量数据之间的相互转换,从而对危险品跨境多式联运的风险进行综合评价,并进行实例验证。仿真实验结果表明:对危险品跨境多式联运安全影响较大的风险因素有安全规则明确程度、操作规范程度、气象环境、国际政治和经济等因素,需采取相应的措施防患于未然;同时验证了提出的定量评价方法能够全面地剖析事故产生因素。Cross-border transportation and multimodal transport have brought a more complex risk environment to the already high-risk transportation of dangerous goods.To effectively evaluate the risk of cross-border multimodal transportation of dangerous goods,based on the 4M factors(variables)of“human,machine,management and environment”,the two factors of“transshipment”and“international relations”in cross-border multimodal transportation were considered,and the six factors were taken as the attributes in the decision-making problem.Based on the randomness and fuzziness of the index factors,the cloud model was used to realize the mutual conversion between qualitative concepts and quantitative data,and the risk of cross-border multimodal transportation of dangerous goods was comprehensively evaluated and verified by the example.The simulation results show that the risk factors have a greater impact on the safety of cross-border multimodal transport of dangerous goods include the clarity of safety rules,the degree of operational norms,meteorological environment,international politics and economy,and corresponding measures should be taken to prevent them.At the same time,it is verified that the proposed quantitative method can comprehensively analyze the accident factors.

关 键 词：云模型 危险品运输 跨境多式联运 风险评价 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]