基于CRITIC-SERENA-FCE法的大型船舶夜间靠离泊风险评价  

Comprehensive quantitative evaluation of large ships berthing operation at night based on CRITIC-SERENA-FCE methods

作　　者：韩宇驰 范中洲[1] 王凯强 王禹晴 HAN Yuchi;FAN Zhongzhou;WANG Kaiqiang;WANG Yuqing(Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2024年第24期28-34,共7页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52371363)。

摘　　要：为保障大型船舶夜间靠离泊作业的安全进行,推动海上交通运输安全的发展,本文提出一种综合风险分析模型对大型船舶夜间靠离泊过程进行定量分析。本文通过收集黄骅港大型船舶靠离泊数据,并开展靠离泊仿真模拟试验构建了风险评价数据集,利用CRITIC法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)、SERENA法(Sequential Relation Analysis)计算风险指标的主客观权重,利用组合赋权法构建指标的组合权重,结合模糊综合评价法(Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation,FCE)对风险进行了定量评价。最后以黄骅港矿石码头大型船舶夜间靠离泊作业为例进行评价,评价结果验证了该评价模型的适用性和可靠性,研究可为大型船舶夜间安全靠离泊提供评价模型与经验。In order to ensure the safety of large ships berthing operations at night and promote the development of maritime transportation safety,this study proposes a comprehensive risk analysis model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the process of large ships berthing operations at night.In this study,the risk evaluation data set was constructed by collecting the berthing data of large ships in Huanghua Port,and carrying out the berthing analogue test,the subjective and objective weights of risk indicators were calculated by using CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)and SERENA(Sequential Relation Analysis)methods,the combined weights of indicators were constructed by using the combined assignment method,and the risk was quantitatively evaluated by combining with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCE).Finally,the evaluation is carried out as an example of night berthing operation of large ships at Huanghua Port Ore Terminal,and the evaluation results verify the applicability and reliability of the evaluation model,and the study provides evaluation models and experiences for the safe berthing operation of large ships at night.

关 键 词：大型船舶 夜间靠离泊 CRITIC法 SERENA法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：U69[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]