电力生产人身伤亡事故风险因素耦合研究  

Study on risk factors coupling of personal injury and death accidents in electricity production

作　　者：庞敏[1,2] 李琼 张益畅 PANG Min;LI Qiong;ZHANG Yichang(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China;Sichuan Oil and Natural Gas Development Research Center,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,四川成都610500 [2]四川石油天然气发展研究中心,四川成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第11期26-34,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助(20XJY006)。

摘　　要：为定量分析我国电力生产人身伤亡事故风险因素间的耦合关系,并识别关键风险因素,首先,依据4M事故致因理论将风险因素划分为人、机、环、管4类一级风险因素,采用扎根理论辨识出32个二级风险因素,将风险因素耦合方式划分为多因素、双因素和单因素耦合3个类别;其次,基于2016—2022年我国发生的196起电力生产人身伤亡事故调查报告,使用N-K模型测度风险因素耦合水平;然后,采用决策试验和评价实验法(DEMATEL)辨识关键风险因素;最后,提出风险防控对策建议。结果表明:事故发生频率与风险因素耦合水平密切相关,而因素耦合水平与参与耦合因素数量成正比,4类风险因素的风险耦合值为0.1628,耦合水平最高;人员风险因素参与耦合的风险值较大,管理风险因素和环境风险因素参与耦合的风险值次之,三因素风险耦合中人-机-环的风险耦合值最大,数值为0.1047,双因素风险耦合中人-环的风险耦合值最大,数值为0.05,均含有人员风险因素;安全生产投入和主体责任未落实、违规违章作业、违规违章指挥决策等人员风险因素和管理风险因素是电力生产人身伤亡事故风险因素耦合作用中的关键因素,应予以重点防控。To quantitatively analyze the coupling relationship between risk factors of personal injury and death accidents in Chinese electricity production and identify key risk factors,these risk factors were categorized into four dimensions:human,machine,environment and management based on the 4M accident causation theory.Utilizing grounded theory,32 secondary risk factors were identified,and the coupling methods were categorized into three types:multi-factor,double-factor and single-factor risk coupling.Drawing from investigation reports of 196 personal injury and death accidents in Chinese electricity production from 2016 to 2022,the N-K model was used to measure the coupling level of risk factors,while DEMATEL method was used to pinpoint key risk factors.Finally,the countermeasures and suggestions for risk prevention and control were put forward.This study shows that the frequency of accidents is closely related to the coupling level of risk factors,and the coupling level of risk factors is proportional to the number of participating factors.The risk coupling value of the four types of risk factors is 0.1628,indicating the highest coupling level.The risk value of human factors participating in the risk coupling is relatively high,followed by the risk values of management and environmental factors.Among the three-factor risk couplings,the human-machine-environment risk coupling has the highest risk value at 0.1047.For the double-factor risk couplings,the human-environment risk coupling has the highest risk value at 0.05.Both risk couplings involve human risk factors.The failure to implement safety production investment and main responsibility,illegal operations and illegal command and decision-making are the key factors in the coupling effect of risk factors of personal injury accidents in electricity production,and priority should be given to prevention and control.

关 键 词：电力生产人身伤亡事故 风险因素 风险耦合 N-K模型 决策试验和评价实验法(DEMATEL) 

分 类 号：X928.01[环境科学与工程—安全科学]