“十五五”时期中国工业比重合理区间探析  

Analysis of the Optimal Distribution Range for Industrial Sector Share in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

作　　者：黄娅娜[1] 贺俊 HUANG Ya-na;HE Jun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学杂志社 [3]中国社会科学院大学 [4]中国社会科学院中小企业研究中心

出　　处：《改革》2024年第12期12-25,共14页Reform

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“消费需求引导企业创新研究”(19XJY030);中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)项目。

摘　　要：“十五五”时期,中国工业将面临需求总体不足、供给相对过剩、传统产业增长动能减弱、美西方战略性领域“脱钩断链”以及后发国家产业替代等多重挑战。尽管结构性冲击导致工业比重下降的趋势不可避免,但鉴于工业在国民经济中的核心地位,其稳定发展至关重要。综合多维度分析,预测“十五五”时期工业在国内的比重介于30%~33%,制造业为25%~28%;占全球工业比重为24%~26%,制造业为28%~30%。为实现工业比重在国内和全球稳定的双重目标,建议工业增速保持在3.5%左右。实现此目标,需着力提升传统产业效率,激发新质生产力创新,激活服务业发展活力,构建创新导向的产业政策体系,增强产业链韧性,并实施区域均衡发展战略。During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period,China's industry will encounter a multitude of challenges,including an overall demand shortfall,relative surplus in supply,waning growth momentum in traditional industries,strategic decoupling and disconnection from western countries,and industrial substitution by later-developing nations.While the trend of declining industrial share due to structural shocks is inevitable,given the central role of industry in the national economy,its stable development is imperative.This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis and forecasts the reasonable range for China's industrial and manufacturing sector shares during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period.The findings indicate that domestic industrial share should fall within 30%-33%,with the manufacturing sector ranging around 25%-28%.Globally,industrial share is anticipated to be between 24%-26%,while the manufacturing sector may reach 28%-30%.To achieve dual goals of maintaining stable domestic and international industrial shares,it is recommended to sustain an industrial growth rate at approximately 3.5%.To accomplish this objective,efforts should focus on enhancing efficiency in traditional industries;fostering innovation for new quality productive forces;revitalizing development vitality within the service sector;establishing an innovation-oriented industrial policy system;strengthening resilience across the industrial chain;and implementing regional balanced development strategy.

关 键 词：工业比重 制造业比重 工业增速 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]