基于K-L展开法考虑土体参数空间变异性的土石坝坝坡可靠度分析  

Reliability analysis of earth rock dam slope considering spatial variability of soil parameters based on K-L expansion method

作　　者：王钰轲 邵琳岚 万愉快 余翔 张蓓[1,2,3] 钟燕辉 WANG Yuke;SHAO Linlan;WAN Yukuai;YU Xiang;ZHANG Bei;ZHONG Yanhui(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;National Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Major Infrastructure Testing and Rehabilitation Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Provincial and ministerial collaborative innovation center for underground engineering disaster prevention and control,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]重大基础设施检测修复技术国家地方联合工程实验室,河南郑州450001 [3]地下工程灾变防控省部共建协同创新中心,河南郑州450001 [4]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《水利学报》2024年第12期1417-1427,共11页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52109140);河南省优秀青年基金项目(232300421069);中原科技创新领军人才项目(234200510014);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划(24HASTIT014);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2023AAC03036)。

摘　　要：针对传统土石坝坝坡稳定性分析方法在处理土体参数空间变异性时的局限性,本文提出了一种基于Karhunen-Loève(K-L)展开法的土石坝坝坡可靠度分析方法。将K-L展开法与拉丁超立方抽样技术和Cholesky分解法集成,建立了坝坡土体参数的随机场模型,该模型考虑了其在空间上的不确定性与随机性。在此基础上,运用蒙特卡洛模拟法对坝坡的可靠度进行评估。通过对土体参数变异系数、自相关距离、相关系数的敏感性分析,研究了上述参数对坝坡失效概率、安全系数以及潜在滑面分布的影响。结果表明,土石坝坝坡土体参数的空间变异性对坝坡可靠度有显著的影响,其中,内摩擦角变异系数、竖直自相关距离、相关系数对坝坡可靠度的影响较大。当内摩擦角变异系数由0.1增至0.4时,坝坡失效概率增加了32.55%;当竖直自相关距离由1 m增至4 m时,坝坡失效概率增加了2.1%;当相关系数由-0.8增至0.5时,坝坡失效概率增加了3.18%。In view of the limitations of traditional earth rock dam slope stability analysis methods in dealing with the spatial variability of soil parameters,a reliability analysis method for earth rock dam slopes based on Karhunen-Loève(K-L)expansion method is proposed in this paper.The K-L expansion method is integrated with Latin hypercube sampling technique and Cholesky decomposition method to establish a random field model of dam slope soil parameters,for which the spatial uncertainty and stochasticity are taken into account.On this basis,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to evaluate the reliability of the dam slope.Through the sensitivity analysis of variation coefficient,autocorrelation distance and correlation coefficient of soil parameters,the effects of these parameters on slope failure probability,safety factor and potential slip surface distribution are studied.The results show that the spatial variability of soil parameters on the earth rock dam slope has a significant impact on the stability.The variation coefficient of internal friction angle,vertical autocorrelation distance and correlation coefficient have a greater impact on the dam slope reliability.When the coefficient of variation of internal friction angle increases from 0.1 to 0.4,the slope failure probability of dam slope increases by 32.55%.When the vertical autocorrelation distance increases from 1m to 4m,the failure probability increases by 2.1%.When the correlation coefficient increases from-0.8 to 0.5,the failure probability increases by 3.85%.

关 键 词：坝坡 可靠度 空间变异性 Karhunen-Loève(K-L)展开法 

分 类 号：TU457[建筑科学—岩土工程]