响应多受端多尺度差异负荷的梯级水电交易电量协调分解方法  

A coordinated decomposition method for power traded in cascade hydropower stations in response to multi-scaled loads

作　　者：韩旭[1] 申建建[1] 程春田[1] 舒卫民[2] 阮燕云 HAN Xu;SHEN Jianjian;CHENG Chuntian;SHU Weimin;RUAN Yanyun(Institute of Hydropower and Hydroinformatics,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116000,China;China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430014,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水电与水信息研究所,辽宁大连116000 [2]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北武汉430014

出　　处：《水利学报》2024年第12期1472-1483,共12页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U23A20667,52039002,52079014);中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目(Z242202008)。

摘　　要：径流和负荷不确定性加剧了西南多受端巨型水电站群调度运行难度,极大影响到水电站中长期交易电量的履约。本文提出响应多受端多尺度差异负荷的梯级水电站交易电量协调方法,考虑长期径流预测误差,构建了基于拉丁超立方抽样及K-means聚类的径流场景生成方法;引入负荷特性指标,提出基于非参数估计的典型负荷特征抽取方法,以精准描述不同受端电网的差异负荷;同时为避免负荷量级对电量分配及曲线分解造成不平衡影响,采用峰谷差率及送电比例重构负荷曲线,构建了以受端电网调峰、梯级水电站计划电量履约期望收益最大多目标模型。以西南某特大流域干流四座巨型梯级水电站送电7个省(市)实际工程为例进行验证分析,结果表明提出的方法可实现年度计划电量在汛枯期及省间合理分配,同时发现电网调峰需求与电站发电收益相互影响关系,有利于协调水电消纳方案。Runoff and load uncertainty exacerbate the difficulty of scheduling and operation of multi-receiver-end giant hydropower plant clusters in Southwest China,which greatly affects the performance of hydropower plants’medium-and long-term traded power.In this paper,a power trading coordination method is proposed for multi-receiver-terminal and multi-scale differential loads of the cascade hydropower plants,and a runoff scenario generation method based on Latin hypercubic sampling and K-means clustering is constructed considering the long-term runoff prediction error.By introducing load characteristic indexes,a typical load feature extraction method based on nonparametric estimation is proposed to accurately characterize the differential loads of the power grids of different receiver terminals.Meanwhile,in order to avoid the unbalanced influence on power allocation and curve decomposition,the load curve is reconstructed by using the peak-to-valley difference rate and the proportion of power delivery,and a multi-objective model is constructed to maximize the expected revenue from the peaking at the receiving end of the grid,and the planned power performance of the terraced hydropower plants.A validation analysis is carried out on the example of the actual project of sending power to seven provinces(municipalities)from four giant terrace hydropower stations in the main stream of a mega-basin in Southwest China.The results show that the proposed method can realize the reasonable distribution of annual planned power in the flood and dry periods and among provinces.At the same time,it is found that the interplay between the grid peak demand and the power station’s power generation revenue is conducive to the coordination of the hydropower consumption program.

关 键 词：电力市场 电量分解 计划电量 梯级水电站 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源]