面向特大干旱的水库旱限水位多级优化研究  

Study on multi-level optimization of reservoir drought-limit water levels for extreme droughts

作　　者：王坤[1] 严子奇[1] 陈刚 蒋云钟[1] 周祖昊[1] 严登华[1] WANG Kun;YAN Ziqi;CHEN Gang;JIANG Yunzhong;ZHOU Zuhao;YAN Denghua(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Yunnan Institute of Water&Hydropower Engineering Investigation,Design and Research,Kunming 650021,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]云南省水利水电勘测设计研究院,云南昆明650021

出　　处：《水利学报》2024年第12期1528-1538,共11页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3000205,2022YFC3201705);国家自然科学基金项目(U2243601)。

摘　　要：旱限水位作为干旱预警和抗旱响应的关键指标,对水资源管理和调度具有重要意义。针对当前旱限水位难以有效应对多年连旱和极端干旱、且未有效发挥死库容作为抗旱应急水源作用等问题,本研究划分了水库旱限水位“初次提出—分期分级—调控期优化—挖潜增供”四个发展阶段,发展了一种考虑启用死库容的旱限水位确定方法,提出面向特大干旱的水库旱限水位多级优化方法,旨在提高旱限水位应对不同程度干旱尤其是特大干旱或多年连旱的能力。通过对云南省楚雄州青山嘴水库进行的案例分析,验证了该方法应对特大干旱的可行性和合理性。结果表明,预留1个水文年的低旱限水位方案可以有效缓解干旱年份的缺水量,在此基础上通过延长抗旱调度期和考虑启动死库容,设置预留2个水文年不含死库容和预留2个水文年含死库容两种方案进行优化,对比显示预留2个水文年且启用死库容的方案能进一步减少各行业的缺水量和严重缺水时段。与现状调度情景相比,该方案将典型连枯水年的供水保障程度均值从78.5%提升至94%,减少了各个月份供水保障率的不均衡性,月缺水量最高可减少500万m^(3),有效减少了不可恢复的重度缺水情况。本研究以期提升干旱防御能力,为特大干旱防御决策提供科学依据和技术支撑。The drought-limit water level,as a key indicator for drought warning and response,plays a significant role in water resource management.In light of the challenges that the current drought-limit water levels is difficult to effectively cope with multi-year consecutive and extreme droughts,as well as the underutilization of dead storage capacity as an emergency water source for drought resistance,this study divided the drought-limit water level of the reservoir into four developmental stages:“initial proposal-staging and classification-optimization of control period-tapping potential to increase supply”.A new method was developed to determine the drought-limit water levels considering the activation of dead storage capacity,and a multi-level optimization approach was proposed to improve the effectiveness of reservoir drought-limit water levels in handling various degrees of drought,particularly multi-year consecutive droughts.Through a case study of the Qingshanzui Reservoir in Chuxiong,Yunnan Province,the feasibility and rationality of this approach in dealing with severe droughts has been verified.The results show that the low drought-limit water level scenario reserved for one hydrological year can effectively alleviate water shortages during drought years by reserving water in advance.On this basis,by extending the drought response scheduling period and considering the activation of dead storage capacity,two optimized scenarios were set up:one reserving water for two hydrological years without utilizing dead storage capacity and another doing so with its utilization.The results indicate that the scenario reserving water for two years and utilizing dead storage capacity further reduces water shortages and their periods across sectors during severe drought.Compared to the current scheduling situation,this optimized scenario increases the water supply security degree during typical consecutive low flow years from 78.5%to 94%,reducing the imbalance in monthly water supply security degree.The monthly water short

关 键 词：旱限水位 干旱 死库容 优化 青山嘴水库 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]