上海原油期货价格成为亚太地区基准价了吗?——基于有效性、主导性和独立性的三维视角研判  

Has Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Price Become the Benchmark Price in the Asia-Pacific Region?——Based on the Validity,Dominance and Independence of the Three-dimensional Perspective Judgement

作　　者：苏鹏 李梓莹 郭庆然 SU Peng;LI Zi-ying;GUO Qing-ran(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China;Center for Innovation Management Research of Xinjiang,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《经济问题》2025年第1期57-69,共13页On Economic Problems

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目“共同富裕背景下新疆企业投资对全国大市场供需缺口演化的反馈机制研究”(2022D01C370);新疆维吾尔自治区“天池英才”高层次人才引进项目;新疆维吾尔自治区研究生创新项目“虚实双视角下国际原油价格波动对我国经济的异质性冲击效应研究”(XJ2024G058)。

摘　　要：我国在石油等大宗商品价格形成的影响力严重缺失,因“亚洲溢价”问题长期承受较高的贸易成本,影响我国能源安全及经济稳定。由此应运而生的上海原油期货,以期扭转我国在全球石油贸易中的被动局面,发挥在亚太地区基准价的作用。为此,从有效性、主导性、独立性三维视角,采用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR-DY)、分位数向量自回归模型(QVAR-DY)及网络分析等方法,系统地对上海原油期货价格成为亚太地区基准价的进程进行了研判。研究发现:上海原油期货价格发挥出了引导区域原油现货价格和规避市场风险的功能,具备有效性;上海原油期货价格在极高分位数水平下对亚太地区原油现货价格的影响具备优势,但其还未体现出主导性;上海原油期货价格作为信息发出者,具有较强惯性和抗风险能力,具备相对独立性。由此判断,上海原油期货已初步成长为具有区域影响力的原油期货,虽然对现货价格的主导性上与Brent和WTI尚有差距,但在价格走势上保有较强的区域独立性,对中国和整个亚太地区的供需能够予以及时、有效反馈,作为全球原油消费重地,亚太地区缺乏自身定价基准的局面正在改变。China’s international influence in the formation of oil and other commodity prices is seriously missing,such as the“Asian premium”problem,which seriously affects China’s energy security and economic stability.As a result,the emergence of Shanghai crude oil futures is to reverse the passive situation in China’s global oil trade and to play the role of the benchmark price in the Asia-Pacific region.To this end,this paper systematically examines the process of Shanghai crude oil futures price becoming the benchmark price in the Asia-Pacific region from the three-dimensional perspectives of effectiveness,dominance,and independence,using time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR-DY),quantile vector autoregressive model(QVAR-DY),and network analysis.The study finds that:Shanghai crude oil futures price has played the functions of guiding regional crude oil spot prices and avoiding market risks with effectiveness;Shanghai crude oil futures price has the advantage of influencing Asia-Pacific crude oil spot prices at very high quantile levels,but they have not yet demonstrated the dominance of spot prices;Shanghai crude oil futures price has strong inertia and risk resistance when they act as an information issuer,and they have relative independence.Judging from this,Shanghai crude oil futures have initially grown into futures with regional influence.Although there is still a gap with the two major international crude oil futures,Brent and WTI,it has strong regional independence in terms of price trend,and can provide timely and effective feedback on the supply and demand in China and the whole Asia-Pacific region.The Asia-Pacific region,as a global crude oil consumption center,lacks its own pricing benchmark situation is changing.

关 键 词：上海原油期货 亚太地区基准价 区域影响力 

分 类 号：F113.3[经济管理—国际贸易]