基于DPSIR模型的广东省水资源安全评价及障碍因子研究  

Study on water resources security and obstacle factors in Guangdong Province based on DPSIR model

作　　者：黄锋华[1,2,3,4] 黄本胜 谭超[1,2,3,4] 邱静 郭磊[1,2,3,4] HUANG Fenghua;HUANG Bensheng;TAN Chao;QIU Jing;GUO Lei(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510610,Guangdong,China;National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuary Hydraulic Technology,Guangzhou 510610,Guangdong,China;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Hydrodynamics,Guangzhou 510610,Guangdong,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Water Environment Treatment and Water Ecological Restoration,Guangzhou 510610,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510610 [2]河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广东广州510610 [3]广东省水动力学应用研究重点实验室,广东广州510610 [4]广东省流域水环境治理与水生态修复重点实验室,广东广州510610

出　　处：《水利发展研究》2024年第12期100-107,共8页Water Resources Development Research

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2020-06,2021-01,2022-01);广州市科技技术项目(202201011540)。

摘　　要：水资源是人类赖以生存与发展的基础,其安全问题已成为社会普遍关注的重大问题。基于DPSIR模型构建了广东省水资源安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法、熵值法、综合指数法和障碍度模型对2010—2020年广东省水资源安全水平进行研究分析。研究表明:主要受驱动力、压力和响应子系统的共同影响,2010—2020年间广东省水资源安全水平总体上呈现波动上升趋势,多年平均综合指数为0.50(Ⅲ级),水资源安全处于基本安全水平。从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个子系统来看,驱动力和影响子系统不容乐观,压力、状态和响应子系统呈现不断向好的趋势。从障碍度来看,驱动力子系统逐渐成为影响广东省水资源安全的主要障碍因素,GDP增长率低是主要障碍指标因子。广东省要重点关注主要障碍因素,做好区域水资源安全指标动态管理,持续提高水资源安全保障能力。Water resources are the basis for human survival and development,and its security has become a major issue of universal concern.Based on the DPSIR model,a water resources security evaluation index system for Guangdong Province isconstructed.This article uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process,Entropy Method,Comprehensive Index Method,and Barrier Degree Model to study and analyze the water resources security level of Guangdong Province from 2010 to 2020.Research has shown that the overall level of water resource security in Guangdong Province has shown a fluctuating upward trend from 2010 to 2020,mainly influenced by the driving force,pressure,and response subsystems.The average comprehensive index over the years is 0.50(level III),indicating that water resource security is at a basic level of safety.From the perspective of the five subsystems of driving force,pressure,state,influence,and response,the driving force and influence subsystems are not optimistic,while the pressure,state,and response subsystems are showing a continuously improving trend.From the perspective of obstacles,the driving force subsystem has gradually become the main obstacle factor affecting water resource security in Guangdong Province,with low GDP growth rate being the main obstacle indicator factor.Guangdong Province should focus on the main obstacles,spendnoefforts in dynamic management of regional water resources security indicators,and continuously improve the ability to ensure water resources security.

关 键 词：DPSIR模型 水资源安全 综合评价 障碍度 广东省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]