高效节水灌溉项目社会稳定风险分析  

Social stability risk analysis of efficient water-saving irrigation projects

作　　者：覃立宁 韦志成 QIN Lining;WEI Zhicheng(Guangxi Pearl River Water Resources Commission Nanning Survey&Design Institute,Nanning 530007,Guangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]广西珠委南宁勘测设计院有限公司,广西南宁530007

出　　处：《水利发展研究》2024年第12期146-152,共7页Water Resources Development Research

基　　金：广西科技基地和人才专项项目(19-A-03-04)。

摘　　要：我国近年来推行的高效节水灌溉项目,由于地域差异、自然资源分布不均、技术适配性不足以及政策连续性不够等问题,面临一系列社会稳定风险因素。文章综合运用流程分解分析法和德尔菲法,剖析节水灌溉项目实施的各个环节,通过多轮反馈汇集专家经验,确保风险调查的全面性、客观性,风险因素筛选的代表性,以及风险评估的准确性。文章基于风险分析结果提出相应的风险防范与化解措施,以期推动高效节水灌溉的广泛实施,实现水资源可持续利用。Due to issues with regional differences,uneven distribution of natural resources,insufficient technical compatibility and policy continuity,the high-efficiency water-saving irrigation projects implemented in China in recent years have faced a series of social stability risks.This article employs a combination of process decomposition analysis and Delphi method to explore every link in the implementation of water-saving irrigation projects.Through multiple rounds of feedback,it integrates expert experiences to ensure the comprehensiveness and objectivity of risk investigations,the representativeness of risk factor selection,and the accuracy of risk assessments.Based on the risk analysis results,risk prevention and mitigation measures are proposed in this article to promote the widespread implementation of high-efficiency water-saving irrigation and achieve sustainable utilization of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源集约利用 德尔菲法 节水灌溉 风险分析 社会稳定 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程]