修正SEIQRDP传播模型的构建与分析  

Construction and Analysis of a Modified SEIQRDP Propagation Model

作　　者：杨忠保 刘泽山 潘春燕 张大林 YANG Zhongbao;LIU Zeshan;PAN Chunyan;ZHANG Dalin(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities,Duyun 558000,China;Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Intelligent Optimization of Guizhou Province,Qiannan Normal University for Nationalities,Duyun 558000,China)

机构地区：[1]黔南民族师范学院数学与统计学院,贵州都匀558000 [2]黔南民族师范学院贵州省高等学校复杂系统与智能优化重点实验室,贵州都匀558000

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2024年第4期34-41,共8页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12361102);贵州省自然科学基金(黔教合KY字[2019]202,黔教合KY字[2019]067);贵州省黔南州科技计划(2019XK04ST,2020XK03ST);黔南民族师范学院高层次人才项目(qnsyrc202204);黔南民族师范学院教育质量提升工程项目(2021xjg029);黔南民族师范学院大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202210670024);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23B110018);贵州省教育厅2023年度普通本科高校科学研究项目(黔教技〔2022〕377号);贵州省科技计划项目(贵黔科合基础ZK[2022]一般549)。

摘　　要：为研究SEIQRDP传播模型的状态,通过引入隔离控制策略,构建SEIQRDP_G传播模型;通过引入疫苗控制策略,构建四种不同修正SEIQRDP传播模型;采用基本再生数、决定系数和中位数绝对误差作为评价指标,模型在长春市的真实疫情数据进行实证分析。实验结果表明,SEIQRDP_G传播模型最贴合实际的疫情数据;SEIQRDP_Y_1和SEIQRDP_Y2_2的基本再生数最少;SEIQRDP_Y2_1与SEIQRDP传播模型的决定系数最少。The SEIQRDP propagation model has seven types of states:susceptible state,non susceptible state,exposed state,confirmed state,isolated state,cured state,and dead state.By introducing isolation control strategies,it was constructed a SEIQRDP_G transmission model,the number of susceptible populations that infected individuals come into contact with will decrease per unit time,protecting the population of susceptible individuals,which can better than a comprehensive open strategy.By introducing vaccine control strategies,four different modified SEIQRDP transmission models were constructed to improve the immune capacity of susceptible populations and reduce mortality rates.The model use the basic reproduction number,and the decision coefficient and median absolute error as evaluation indicators,the real epidemic data of the model in Changchun City were empirically analyzed.The experimental results indicate that the SEIQRDP_G transmission model is most suitable for practical epidemic data;the SEIQRDP_Y_1 and the SEIQRDP_Y2_2 propagation model have the lowest basic regeneration number;the determination coefficients of the SEIQRDP_Y2_1 and SEIQRDP propagation models are the least.Through the introduction of control strategies,the transmission mechanism of the epidemic was further characterized.

关 键 词：传染病 SEIQRDP传播模型 疫苗控制 隔离控制 修正SEIQRDP传播模型 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学] O175[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]