Does the Digital Economy Optimize Tourism Industry Structure?Effects and Mechanisms Based on Quantile Regression and Threshold Modeling  

数字经济能优化旅游产业结构吗?——基于分位数回归与门槛模型的效应与机制研究

作　　者：LIU Lei SU Juan XUE Xuanxuan 刘蕾;粟娟;薛璇璇(吉首大学旅游学院,湖南张家界427000)

机构地区：[1]College of Tourism,Jishou University,Zhangjiajie,Hunan 427000,China

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2024年第6期1692-1706,共15页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261042);The Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation(2024JJ7410);The Hunan Provincial Graduate Student Research and Innovation Program(CX20221095)。

摘　　要：A comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed,and the entropy weight TOPSIS method isused to measure the optimization level of the digital economy and tourism industry structure of 30 provinces inChina from 2012 to 2021.Moreover,models such as quantile regression and panel threshold are used to explorethe influence of the digital economy(DIG)on the optimization of the tourism industry structure(TIS)as well as itstransmission mechanism.The study reveals that DIG significantly promotes TIS,which remains valid after endogeneity and robustness tests;the impact of DIG on TIS exhibited a“U-shape”effect that first decreases and thenincreases,and its highest significance is at the 90%quartile level.Threshold model tests revealed a nonlinearthreshold effect with DIG and tourism total factor productivity(TTFP)as a single threshold and tourism technological progress index(TECH)as a double threshold,and the second threshold has the largest effect of 0.163.Mechanism analysis found that the mediating impact of the DIG on the TIS was mediated by increasing the TTFP,and the TECH accounted for the highest proportion of 12.15%.Regional analysis revealed that the role of DIG onthe TIS is Central>East>West>Northeast,and the empowering effect is more significant in the high digital economylevel area and the high tourism industry structure optimization area.构建综合评价指标体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法测度2012-2021年中国30个省份数字经济与旅游产业结构优化水平,并采用分位数回归、面板门槛等模型探讨数字经济对旅游产业结构优化的影响效应和传导机制。研究发现,数字经济显著促进旅游产业结构优化,经内生性检验和稳健性检验后仍然有效;数字经济对旅游产业结构优化的整体影响呈现先减后增的“U型”效应特征且在90%分位数水平下最显著;门槛模型检验发现存在以数字经济与旅游业全要素生产率为单门槛值以及旅游业技术进步指数为双门槛值的非线性门槛效应,并且第二门槛区间影响作用最大为0.613;机制分析发现,数字经济通过提高旅游全要素生产率促进旅游产业结构优化且旅游业技术进步指数占比最高为12.15%;区域异性性分析发现数字经济对旅游产业结构优化的作用为中部>东部>西部>东北部且高数字经济水平区与高旅游产业结构优化区的赋能效应更显著。

关 键 词：digital economy tourism industry structure optimization tourism total factor productivity quantile regression panel threshold model 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F592