我国重大疾病跨地域就诊的随机网络建模与分析  

Random network modeling and analysis of medical migration for major diseases in China

作　　者：李海东 张路霞[2,3,4] 杨超 李鹏飞[2,4] 彭一杰 LI Haidong;ZHANG Luxia;YANG Chao;LI Pengfei;PENG Yijie(College of Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;National Institute of Health Data Science,Peking University,Beijing 100191,China;Renal Division,Department of Medicine,Peking University First Hospital,Peking University,Beijing 100034,China;Advanced Institute of Information Technology,Peking University,Hangzhou 311215,China;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学工学院,北京100871 [2]北京大学健康医疗大数据国家研究院,北京100191 [3]北京大学第一医院肾内科,北京大学肾脏疾病研究所,北京100034 [4]浙江省北大信息技术高等研究院,浙江杭州311215 [5]北京大学光华管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2025年第2期282-294,共13页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72201006、72125009、72022001)。

摘　　要：关于重大疾病跨地域就诊的管理与决策问题是我国医药卫生体制改革的主要关注点之一。目前有关卫生管理领域的研究缺少重大疾病跨地域就诊建模的全局性视角。本文基于跨地域就诊的流动数据,提出使用随机网络来对跨地域就诊现象进行建模和分析。随机网络中节点的平稳概率反映了网络的全局属性,且随机网络模型表现出的性质均具有较强的现实意义。本文还讨论了不同本地就诊偏好程度和不同节点尺度下随机网络模型的结果,并分析了平稳概率关于交互强度的敏感性。本文提出的随机网络模型和相应的优化目标为重大疾病跨地域就诊管理决策理论和方法的研究奠定了基础。The management and control of medical migration for major diseases is one of the major concerns of Chinese medical and health system reform.Existing research in the field of health management lacks a global perspective of modeling medical migration for majordi seases.Based on the patient flow da ta of medical migration,this study proposes to use random ne tworks to model and analyze medicalmigration.The stationary pro babilityof nodes in a random network reflects a global attribute of thenetwork,and the properties shown by the random network modelhave strong practical significance.This study also discusses the results of random network models underdiffe rent non-migrant preference levels and different node scales,and analyzes the sensitivity of stationary probability to interaction inte nsity.The random network model and the corresponding optimiza tion goal proposed in this paper lay a foundation for theoreticalandmethodological studies on the management and control of medicalmigration for major diseases.In the first part,this paper presents the patient flow data of medical migration from a real-world database.The data analysis results ind icatethat while the local attributes of the network can capture the presence of large nodes within the network,they fail to consider theheterogeneity in contributions of different edges to the nodes.Therefore,random networks are used to model and analyze medical migr ation.Specifically,each city is considered a node of the random network and a state of the Markov chain,and the nodes are linked witheac h other with certain transition probabilities.The movement of patients between cities can be viewed as the transfer of states betweennetwork nodes.The stationa ry probability of the Markov chain captures the long-run proportion of visits to each node,and thus reflects the concentration of patientsin each city.In the second part,based on the patient flow data medical migration,this paper establishes and analyzes specific random netw ork models.Specifically,the paper considers the o

关 键 词：决策分析 跨地域就诊 随机网络建模 网络评估与分析 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] C93[理学—数学]