河北省鸭梨种植收益构成要素敏感性与贡献率分析  

Analysis of the Sensitivity and Contribution Rate of the Components of Yali Pear Planting Income in Hebei Province

作　　者：胡志超 刘海滨 宋梅雪 张亮 HU Zhichao;LIU Haibin;SONG Meixue;ZHANG Liang(School of Economics and Management,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding,Hebei 071001)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济管理学院,河北保定071001

出　　处：《北方园艺》2024年第24期139-146,共8页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：河北省现代农业产业技术体系梨创新团队产业经济岗位建设资助项目(HBCT2024170301);河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大资助项目(ZD202009)。

摘　　要：基于1998—2021年河北省鸭梨种植的成本收益数据,从敏感性和贡献率2个角度,运用单位根检验法、E-G两步法协整检验及贡献率方法,对鸭梨种植收益的各构成要素进行线性回归实证分析,研究鸭梨种植收益构成要素,旨在优化河北省梨生产资源配置,为梨生产提质增效注入新活力,做强梨产业带动持续增收。敏感性分析表明,销售价格对鸭梨种植收益的影响最为显著,其后依次为每667 m^(2)人工成本、鸭梨产量、物质与服务费用以及土地成本。贡献率分析表明,河北省鸭梨种植收益各构成要素对其贡献率大小依次为销售价格、每667 m^(2)鸭梨产量、人工成本、物质与服务费用及土地成本。最后提出推动全产业链标准化,打造梨品牌;更新梨种植模式,减少人工投入等对策建议,以提升河北省鸭梨种植收益。Based on the cost-benefit data of pear cultivation in Hebei Province from 1998 to 2021,from the perspectives of sensitivity and contribution rate,the unit root test,E-G two-step cointegration test,and contribution rate method were used to conduct linear regression empirical analysis on the various components of pear cultivation income,in order to optimize the allocation of pear production resources in Hebei Province,inject new vitality into improving the quality and efficiency of pear production,and strengthen the pear industry to drive sustained income growth.Sensitivity analysis showed that the selling price had the most significant effect on the planting income,followed by labor cost per 667 m^(2),production,material and service cost and land cost.The contribution rate analysis showed that the contribution rate of each component of Yali pear plantation income in Hebei Province was successively sales price,production per 667 m^(2),labor cost,material and service cost and land cost.Finally,it was proposed to promote the standardization of the whole industry chain and build the pear brand,in order to improve the yield of Yali pear planting in Hebei province,some countermeasures were proposed,such as updating pear planting mode and reducing manual input.

关 键 词：鸭梨 种植收益 敏感性 贡献率 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]