贸易关税政策变化对省际收入不平等的影响——基于一般均衡视角的分析与定量估计  

Analyzing the Impact of the Change in Trade Tariff Policy on the Provincial Income Gap:A General Equilibrium and Quantitative Approach

作　　者：马啸 章逸然 孟子凯 MA Xiao;ZHANG Yiran;MENG Zikai(Peking University;Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学汇丰商学院 [2]复旦大学中国社会主义市场经济研究中心

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2024年第6期1834-1850,共17页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72203012、72203046);上海市浦江人才计划(2022PJC024)的资助。

摘　　要：本文构建含有省际贸易及人口流动的一般均衡模型,从不平等角度定量分析加入WTO后的关税变动如何影响居民收入与其省际差距。本文将结构模型匹配中国现实数据,通过对我国30个省份、34个外国的29个行业的贸易、关税、总产出和劳动力数据的整理,结果发现:(1)进、出口关税变化使我国居民实际工资增加1.10%与0.24%;(2)出口导向省份工资从关税下降中获益更多;(3)关税变化将省际名义和实际收入不平等提升了5.9%与4.2%,劳动力向沿海地区转移放大了关税对省际收入不平等的影响。区域间转移政策制定应关注贸易对省际不平等的负面作用。A general equilibrium framework is developed to quantify the impact of China's tariff changes after WTO accession.Aligning the model with the Chinese economy using trade,tariff,total output,and labor data from 29 industries across 30 provinces and 34 foreign countries,the results show that:(1)changes in import and export tariffs led to an average increase of 1.10%and 0.24%in residential real income;(2)decreases in tariff rates benefited income in export-oriented provinces greatly;and(3)declines in tariff rates increased the provincial nominal and real income gap by 5.9%and 4.2%,respectively.The increase in nominal income gap was further exacerbated by labor migration to coastal areas.The design of inter-regional transfer policies should consider the negative impact of trade on inequality.

关 键 词：贸易自由化 关税 收入差距 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易] F124.7[经济管理—产业经济]