基于气象数据的东北三省玉米产量预测  

Forecast of Maize Yield in the Three Northeastern Provinces Based on the Climate Change

作　　者：付海美 马巧云 张春梅 邸佳颖 王红燕 韩佳冀 李俐膊 郭晓青 Fu Haimei;Ma Qiaoyun;Zhang Chunmei;Di Jiaying;Wang Hongyan;Han Jiaji;Li Libo;Guo Xiaoqing(Institute of Analysis and Testing,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,(Beijing Center for Physical and Chemical Analysis),Beijing 100089;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Technology,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081;Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Urban Construction School,Beijing City University,Beijing 101309)

机构地区：[1]北京市科学技术研究院分析测试研究所(北京市理化分析测试中心),北京100089 [2]农业农村部农业监测预警技术重点实验室,北京100081 [3]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [4]北京城市学院城建学部,北京101309

出　　处：《农业展望》2024年第9期40-48,共9页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部农业监测预警技术重点实验室开放课题;北京市科学技术研究院创新培育项目(23CB029);第一师阿拉尔市科技计划项目(2022TF02)。

摘　　要：分析研判气象因素对作物产量的影响,解析区域气象因子与气象产量的响应关系,是应对未来气候变化以及保障作物稳产增产的重要支撑。本研究基于1980—2020年黑龙江、吉林、辽宁东北三省气象和玉米产量数据,运用数据统计方法对玉米产量、玉米生长季(5—9月)的气象因子进行分析,建立了玉米气象产量与主要气象因子的线性回归方程。结果表明:1980年以来东北三省玉米生长季的平均气温呈明显升高趋势,年际间波动明显,吉林和辽宁的降水量、黑龙江和吉林的日照时数、黑龙江和吉林的参考作物蒸散量表现为降低趋势,而黑龙江省降水量、辽宁省日照时数和吉林省的参考作物蒸散量呈增加趋势;玉米实际单产和趋势产量均呈增加趋势,气象产量和相对气象产量年际间波动较大;9月参考作物蒸散量、7月参考作物蒸散量和6月日照时数分别显著影响黑龙江、吉林和辽宁的玉米气象产量,且均为负相关。黑龙江玉米生长季的参考作物蒸散量的显著减少趋势有利于气象产量的增长,吉林玉米生长季参考作物蒸散量的显著增加趋势易形成干旱,制约玉米气象产量的提高。根据建立的拟合回归方程,可以预测当年玉米气象产量和实际单产,从而获得玉米总产。研究将为东北三省玉米稳产高产与种植结构调整提供理论指导,为更好地把握玉米的市场动态和产业链变化趋势提供决策支持。Based on the meteorological and maize production data in the three northeastern provinces from 1980 to 2020,the impact of climate change on maize production and the forecast models maize yield were calculated.The maize yield and meteorological factors in the growing season(May to September)were analyzed,and the linear regression equations of meteorological yield and the related meteorological factors were established by data statistical methods.The results showed that,since 1980,the average temperature of maize growing season in the three northeastern provinces has shown a significant upward trend,with obvious inter-annual fluctuations,and the precipitation in Jilin and Liaoning,the sunshine hours in Heilongjiang and Jilin,and the evapotranspiration of reference crops in Heilongjiang and Jilin have shown a decreasing trend,while the precipitation in Heilongjiang province,the sunshine hours in Liaoning province,and the evapotranspiration of reference crops in Jilin province have shown an increasing trend.The actual yield and trend yield of maize increased,the meteorological yield and relative meteorological yield fluctuated greatly between years.The potential evapotranspiration in September,the potential evapotranspiration in July and the sunshine hours in June significantly affected the meteorological yield of maize in Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning,respectively,and all were negatively correlated.The significant decrease in evapotranspiration of reference crops in the maize growing season in Heilongjiang was conducive to the growth of meteorological yield,and the significant increase in evapotranspiration of reference crops in the maize growing season in Jilin was prone to cause drought and restricted the increase of maize yield.The meteorological and actual yield of maize in the current year can be predicted according to the fitting regression equation,which will provide technical support for maize harvesting,storage,transportation and market policies in the three northeastern provinces,and provide decision mak

关 键 词：东北三省 玉米 气候变化 产量预测 线性回归方程 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] S16