2020-2060年中国森林碳汇及碳移除潜力分析  

Analysis of forest carbon sinks and carbon removal potential in China from 2020 to 2060

作　　者：贾敏 叶舒 李明煜 黄妮 白彦锋[7] 阮建辉 张立[9] 郑海涛[1] 汤铃 王力 蔡博峰 JIA Min;YE Shu;LI Mingyu;HUANG Ni;BAI Yanfeng;RUAN Jianhui;ZHANG Li;ZHENG Haitao;TANG Ling;WANG Li;CAI Bofeng(School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Key Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems,South China Botanical Garden,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Guangzhou 510650,China;South China National Botanical Garden,Guangzhou 510650,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Aerospace Information Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100094,China;Research Institute of Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling,Department of Earth System Science,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Center for Carbon Neutrality,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100043,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191 [2]中国科学院华南植物园,中国科学院退化生态系统植被恢复与管理重点实验室,广州510650 [3]华南国家植物园,广州510650 [4]中国科学院大学,资源与环境学院,北京100049 [5]清华大学环境学院,北京100084 [6]中国科学院空天信息创新研究院,北京100049 [7]中国林业科学研究院林业研究所,北京100091 [8]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [9]清华大学地球系统科学系,北京100084 [10]生态环境部环境规划院,碳达峰碳中和研究中心,北京100043

出　　处：《环境工程学报》2024年第10期2677-2685,共9页Chinese Journal of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFC3807700)。

摘　　要：通过综合运用Miami模型和GIS空间分析模型等方法,模拟测算中国2020—2060年10×10 km的空间精度的CO_(2)直接排放和森林碳汇,全面分析森林碳汇潜力的碳移除时空特征,深入探究中国现状及未来森林碳汇潜力对实现碳中和发展目标的贡献。研究结果表明,2020—2060年间,中国CO_(2)直接排放总量整体呈现下降趋势,年均下降率为2.89%~4.19%;森林碳汇整体呈现上升趋势,年均增长率为1.83%~2.29%。从空间维度,我国CO_(2)直接排放与森林碳汇存在异质性区域分布特征,CO_(2)排放较高的省份主要分布于山东、河北等省份,而森林碳汇较高的省份主要分布于内蒙古、吉林等省份(自治区);从时间维度,森林碳汇对大气CO_(2)直接排放总量的碳移除份额逐渐增大,实现净零排放的省份逐渐增多。2020年,在森林碳汇作用下,仅西藏实现近零排放,SSP126情景和SSP585情景下,分别共计14和10个省(直辖市、自治区)实现近零排放。此外,通过对比SSP126情景和SSP585情景,可持续发展战略实施对实现“双碳”目标至关重要。研究结果精准量化森林碳汇对中国实现“双碳”目标的关键作用,从而为我国制定碳汇发展政策提供夯实的数据与理论支撑。By using Miami model and GIS spatial analysis model,forest carbon sinks and direct CO_(2)emissions in China at a 10*10 km grid from 2020 to 2060 were comprehensively simulated,spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon removal in forest carbon sinks were analyzed,and the contribution of carbon sinks to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality was further explored.The results showed that direct CO_(2)emissions in China showed a persistent downward trend from 2020 to 2060,with an average annual decrease rate of 2.89%~4.19%.Forest carbon sinks showed a persistent upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 1.83%~2.29%.From the spatial perspective,direct CO_(2)emissions and forest carbon sinks performed regional heterogeneity.Provinces with higher CO_(2)emissions were mainly distributed in eastern provinces such as Shandong and Hebei,while provinces with higher forest carbon sinks were mainly distributed in provinces(or autonomous regions)like Inner Mongolia and Jilin.From the temporal perspective,the ratio of forest carbon sinks to direct CO_(2)emissions gradually increased,and the number of provinces that had achieved net-zero emission target significantly increases from 2020 to 2060.Specifically,only Tibet could achieve net-zero emission goals in 2020 under the effect of forest carbon sinks.In 2060,14 and 10 provinces(or autonomous regions and municipalities)would achieve near-zero emission targets in the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.Furthermore,by comparing the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,the implementation of sustainable development strategies was crucial to achieving the“Dual-carbon”goals.The research results identify the pivot role of forest carbon sinks in achieving China’s“Dual-carbon”goal,thereby providing a solid data foundation and theoretical support for policymaking of carbon sinks.

关 键 词：森林碳汇 碳排放 碳移除 碳中和 

分 类 号：X506[环境科学与工程—环境工程]