长江上游区域滑坡灾害生态风险评估  

Ecological risk assessment of landslide hazards in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River region

作　　者：单云锋 李为乐[1,2] 周胜森 曲歌 许强 SHAN Yunfeng;LI Weile;ZHOU Shengsen;QU Ge;XU Qiang(State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Laboratory of Landslide Risk Early-Warning and Control,Ministry of Emergency Management,Chengdu 610059,China)

机构地区：[1]地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室(成都理工大学),成都610059 [2]应急管理部滑坡灾害风险预警与防控实验室,成都610059

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第24期11437-11449,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：长江生态环境保护修复联合研究二期项目(2022-LHYJ-02-0201);四川省重点研发项目(2023YFS0435);地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室自主研究课题(SKLGP2022Z007)。

摘　　要：滑坡灾害对生态系统健康构成巨大威胁,滑坡灾害生态风险评估对于生态系统管理和风险防范至关重要。基于“概率损失”理论,提出了综合滑坡危险性、生态脆弱性和潜在损失的滑坡灾害生态风险评估框架,以长江上游地区为例,开展了实证研究。通过随机森林模型进行滑坡危险性评估,采用景观指数进行生态脆弱性分析,并利用生态系统服务和人口空间数据表征潜在损失。结果表明:(1)研究区滑坡危险性等级主要为极低和低,占总面积的44%和14%;中等危险性区域占总面积的17%,主要分布在贵州省北部;高和极高危险性区域分别占总面积的17%和8%,主要分布在四川省雅安市、四川省巴中市至达州市一带及三峡库区。(2)高和极高等级生态脆弱性占总面积的40%,主要分布在四川盆地、云贵高原、三峡库区和黄土高原的平原和丘陵地区,潜在损失主要集中在三峡库区和横断山区,这些地区具有强大的生态系统服务功能,但在发生滑坡灾害时,潜在损失较高。(3)较高生态风险区域呈现局部聚集,占总面积的3.21%,主要集中在岷江、大渡河、长江流域地区;长江上游地区的高生态风险的成因和机制具有显著的空间异质性,人类活动对生态风险产生了较大的影响。Landslide hazards pose a significant and persistent threat to ecosystem health,making the ecological risk assessment of such hazards essential for effective ecosystem management and proactive risk prevention strategies.This study proposes a comprehensive framework for assessing the ecological risks associated with landslide hazards,grounded in the“probability⁃loss”theory.This framework synthesizes three critical components:landslide hazard,ecological vulnerability,and potential loss.To demonstrate the applicability of this framework,we conducted an empirical study focused on the upper Yangtze River region,an area characterized by diverse topography and significant ecological value.The landslide hazard assessment was conducted using a random forest model,effectively capturing the complex interactions between various environmental factors contributing to landslide occurrence.Ecological vulnerability was analyzed using a landscape index,providing insights into the susceptibility of different ecosystems within the study area.Additionally,spatial data on ecosystem services and population density were employed to characterize the potential losses resulting from landslide events.The results were as follows:(1)The study area exhibits a predominance of low and very low landslide hazard levels,encompassing 44%and 14%of the total area,respectively.Areas with moderate hazard susceptibility account for 17%ofthe total area and are mainly located in the northern part of Guizhou Province.High and very high hazard zones constitute17%and 8%of the total area,respectively,and are primarily concentrated in regions such as Ya′an,Bazhong,and Dazhouin Sichuan Province and the Three Gorges Reservoir area.(2)Ecological vulnerability is pronounced in the study region,with high and very high vulnerability levels covering 40%of the total area.These vulnerable areas are primarily situated inthe plains and hills of the Sichuan Basin,the Yunnan⁃Guizhou Plateau,the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,and the LoessPlateau.Notably,potential loss

关 键 词：滑坡 生态系统 风险评估 长江上游地区 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]