CMIP6全球气候模式对贵州省降水模拟能力的评估与预估  

Evaluation and Projection of Simulating Precipitation over GuizhouProvince with CMIP6 Models

作　　者：张娇艳[1,2] 陈贞宏 李扬 陈早阳 王玥彤 ZHANG Jiaoyan;CHEN Zhenhong;LI Yang;CHEN Zaoyang;WANG Yuetong(Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Key Lab of Mountainous Climate and Resources,Guiyang 550002,China;Anshun Meteorological Bureau,Anshun 561000,China;Guiyang Meteorological Bureau,Guiyang 550001,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气候中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002 [3]安顺市气象局,贵州安顺561000 [4]贵阳市气象局,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第6期47-54,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-118);云贵准静止锋研究攻关团队(QHLSSLJ[2022]-11);贵州省企业气象联合基金(QHLQLJ[2022]-05)。

摘　　要：利用18个CMIP6气候模式及其同源的CMIP5气候模式和贵州省84个气象台站逐日降水资料,基于评估时段均方根误差以及泰勒图,系统评估CMIP6模式对贵州省降水的模拟能力,并采用最佳模拟结果预估了2023—2100年SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5未来情景下贵州省降水的变化特征。结果表明:CMIP6-MMA(MMA,多模式平均)对1986—2005年贵州省连续干旱日数(CDD)、>20 mm的降水日数(R20 mm)、连续5 d最大降水量(Rx5day)、降水强度(SDII)和年降水总量(PRCPTOT)的模拟能力普遍优于单个模式及CMIP5-MMA;相对于参照期(1995—2014年),2023—2100年贵州省除CDD在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下呈现减少趋势外,SSP5-8.5情景下CDD以及3种排放情景下R20 mm、Rx5day、SDII和PRCPTOT值均呈现显著上升趋势;2023—2048年、2049—2074年和2075—2100年南部地区CDD在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下均表现为多于参照期,因此贵州省南部地区未来可能发展的旱情值得关注。21世纪3种情景下各个阶段贵州省R20 mm、Rx5day、SDII和PRCPTOT均多于参照期,增幅普遍自西向东逐渐变大,且越到后期增幅越大。全球变暖背景下特别是高排放情景下贵州省极端强降水呈增加趋势,贵州省东部地区最为突出。Based on the daily precipitation data from 18 global climate models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)and their precedent phase project(CMIP5),and the 84 observational stations in Guizhou Province,the capabilities of CMIP6 on simulating the precipitation in Guizhouwassystematically evaluated using the root mean square error(RMSE)and Taylor diagram for the evaluation period.The best simulation results were selected to project the change characteristics of the precipitation in Guizhou under three future scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)from 2023 to 2100.The results showed that the CMIP6-MMA(multimodel mean)generally had better performance in simulating the indices including the maximum number of consecutive dry days(CDD),the number of days with precipitation≥20 mm×(R20 mm),the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5day),simple daily intensity index(SDII)and total annual precipitation(PRCPTOT)compared to the individual model and the CMIP5-MMA in Guizhou from 1986 to 2005.Compared to the reference period(1995-2014),significant increases were detected in Guizhou from 2023 to 2100 in CDD under SSP5-8.5,and R20mm,Rx5day,SDII and PRCPTOT under three scenarios,except for CDD under SSP1-2.6 and 2-4.5.Itindicated that CDD over the southern Guizhou grew during the 21st century(2023-2048,2049-2074 and 2075-2100)under SSP2-4.5 and 5-8.5 relative to 1995-2014.The resultsimplied that more attention should be paid to the potential drought in southern Guizhou in future.Besides,the increases in R20 mm,Rx5day,SDII and PRCPTOT were also found in Guizhou during the 21st century compared to 1995-2014,with the increases generally intensifying from west to east and becoming moer pronounced over time,it suggested that the extreme heavy precipitation over Guizhou showed an increasing trend under the high emission scenario against the global warming,especially in eastern Guizhou.

关 键 词：CMIP6 气候变化预估 极端降水 贵州省 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]