三种全球降水产品的气候特征差异对比分析  

Comparative Analysis of Differences in Climate Characteristics of ThreeGlobal Precipitation Datasets

作　　者：安琳 沈晓燕[1,2] 权晨[1,2] 管琴 申燕玲 杜华礼 AN Lin;SHEN Xiaoyan;QUAN Chen;GUAN Qin;SHEN Yanling;Du Huali(Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science,Xining 810001,China;Key Laboratory for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Qinghai Province,Xining 810001,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省气象科学研究所,青海西宁810001 [2]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海西宁810001

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2024年第6期72-82,共11页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF1302601);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0206);国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(41865006);青海省气象局面上项目(QXMS2023-49)。

摘　　要：基于1979—2021年美国气候预测中心(CPC)制作的融合分析降水数据集标准版(CMAP STD)和增强版(CMAP ENH)及全球降水气候计划第2.3版(GPCP V2.3)的月平均产品,评估3种降水产品的可用性,对比分析其在全球尺度的气候特征差异,筛选出3种产品不确定性大的关键年份和关键区域。结果表明:5—7月,CMAP ENH的全球月平均降水量偏多,其余月份GPCP V2.3偏多;CMAP的全球降水量呈显著的逐年减少趋势,GPCP V2.3年际和年代际变化不显著。3种降水产品的空间分布差异主要体现在降水量级上,CMAP在热带地区的降水量偏多。陆地上,CMAP降水量呈显著增加趋势,GPCP V2.3降水量偏多;海洋上,3种产品的降水量年变化趋势与其全球降水量变化趋势一致且变化速率较全球快,CMAP ENH降水量偏多。3种降水产品不确定性较大的关键年份为1998、2009、2010年,关键区域主要位于东南极洲东部、50°~70°S的洋面、60°~180°E,15°S~15°N的地区以及格陵兰岛以南的海域等地。Based on the monthly mean products from Standard(STD)and Enhanced(ENH)versions of the Merged Analyses of Precipitation(CMAP)produced by the Climate Prediction Center(CPC),and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project Version 2.3(GPCP V2.3)during 1979-2021,suitability of the three precipitation products were first assessed Subsequently,a comparative analysis was conducted on the differences in their climatic characteristics at a global scale,and identifying the significant years and regions with high precipitation uncertainty among the three products.Results showed that,CMAP ENH had more global monthly average precipitation from May to July,and GPCP V2.3 had more precipitation for the rest of the months.There wasa notable interannual decreasing trend in global precipitation from CMAP and indistinctive interannual and interdecadal variation trends from GPCP V2.3.The spatial distribution differences of the three products appeared mainly in the amount of precipitation.CMAP showed higherprecipitation in the tropics.Precipitation from CMAP indicateda significant increasing trend,and GPCP V2.3 had more precipitation on land.While over theocean,the annual variation trends of precipitation from the three products wereconsistent with their trends at the global scale but had faster rates of variation,and the CMAP ENH had more precipitation.The significantyears with high uncertainty in precipitation from the three products were1998,2009,and 2010.The key regions were mainly located in the eastern part of East Antarctica,the ocean surface between 50°S-70°S,areas within 60°E-180°E&15°S-15°N,the sea south of Greenland.

关 键 词：全球降水产品 时间变化 空间分布 不确定性估计 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]