临床风险预测模型外部验证指南(2024版)的解读与启示  

Interpretation of and insights from the guidelines for external validation of clinical risk prediction models

作　　者：周新艺 孙建华 王晓杰[3] 邓海波[1] 王磊[4] 朱丽筠 邵曼娜 杨妮 马玉芬[5] 徐园 Zhou Xinyi;Sun Jianhua;Wang Xiaojie;Deng Haibo;Wang Lei;Zhu Liyun;Shao Manna;Yang Ni;Ma Yufen;Xu Yuan(Department of Nursing,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Hospital,Beijing 100730,China)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院护理部,北京100730 [2]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院内科ICU,北京100730 [3]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院乳腺外科,北京100730 [4]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院血管外科,北京100730 [5]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院工会,北京100730 [6]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院保健医疗部,北京100730

出　　处：《护理学杂志》2024年第24期52-56,共5页Journal of Nursing Science

基　　金：中央高水平医院临床科研专项(2022-PUMCH-A-132)。

摘　　要：解读BMJ最新发表的临床风险预测模型外部验证指南(2024版),对获取高质量数据集、进行结局事件预测、评估模型预测性能、评估临床适用性及清晰透明的报告结果5个关键步骤进行分析总结,并对我国护理领域风险预测模型外部验证的问题及局限性提出建议,以期推动未来护理领域高质量风险预测模型向临床实际应用转化。This paper interprets the latest guideline on external validation of clinical risk prediction models published by BMJ(2024 edition).It analyzes and summarizes five key steps:obtaining high-quality datasets,predicting outcome events,assessing model performance,evaluating clinical applicability,and reporting results clearly and transparently.Additionally,it offers suggestions regarding the challenges and limitations of external validation of risk prediction models in the nursing field in China,aiming to promote the translation of high-quality risk prediction models into clinical practice in nursing.

关 键 词：护理风险 临床风险预测模型 外部验证 评估 高质量数据集 结局事件 临床适用性 指南解读 

分 类 号：R471[医药卫生—护理学]