个人养老金消费者风险评估的经济阐释——关于养老金融大文章的理论研究  

The Economic Interpretation of Private Pension Consumer Risk Assessment:A Theoretical Study of the Major Article on Pension Finance

作　　者：赵恒[1] 周延[1] Zhao Heng;Zhou Yan

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2024年第6期19-34,144,共17页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790089);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目华东师范大学优秀博士生课题(YBNLTS2023-030)。

摘　　要：从金融五篇大文章之一的养老金融入手,使用三方演化博弈模型和动态一般均衡世代交叠模型,基于微观、宏观两个视角对个人养老金消费者风险评估进行经济阐释。研究发现,消费者、金融机构与监管机构的风险评估策略存在渐进均衡点,对金融机构经济行为进行约束可以调整三方演化博弈的渐进均衡点朝着理想状态改变。在金融机构尽职评估成本小于未尽职评估成本的条件下,无论渐进均衡点如何变化,金融机构均会选择尽职评估策略,不易发生个人养老金消费者所购产品与自身风险承受能力不匹配的现象。消费者选择保守估计策略与金融机构选择尽职评估策略有助于维护总产出、消费、劳动供给、第一支柱养老金与第三支柱养老金稳定。提升个人养老金缴费率与加大税收优惠政策力度有利于放大消费者和金融机构正向策略的积极作用;反之则会缩小消费者和金融机构正向策略的积极作用。Setting out from pension finance,which was one of the themes among the five major articles in finance,this study aimed to provide an economic interpretation of private pension consumer risk assessment from a micro and macro perspective using the three-party evolutionary game model and the dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model.The following findings were obtained.First,an asymptotic equilibrium point is present in the risk assessment strategies of consumers,financial institutions,and regulators;constraining the economic behavior of financial institutions can adjust the asymptotic equilibrium point in the three-party evolutionary game toward the ideal state.Under the condition that the cost of due diligence is less than the cost of no due diligence among financial institutions,financial institutions will choose a due diligence strategy regardless of how the asymptotic equilibrium point changes,and the phenomenon that the products purchased by private pension consumers do not match their risk tolerance is less likely to occur.Second,consumers opting for a conservative estimation strategy and financial institutions choosing a due diligence strategy can help to maintain the stability of total output,consumption,labor supply,Pillar 1 pensions,and Pillar 3 pensions.Raising private pension contribution rates and increasing tax incentives can help to amplify the positive effects of the positive strategies adopted by consumers and financial institutions;conversely,they diminish the positive effects of the positive strategies adopted by consumers and financial institutions.

关 键 词：养老金融 个人养老金 风险评估 金融消费者保护 适当性管理 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]