切花月季霜霉病在温室内的发生预测模型  

Prediction modeling of downy mildew for cut roses in greenhouses

作　　者：杨潇[1,2] 李秋实 杨实秋 马旭俊 王慧纯 张颢 邱显钦 YANG Xiao;LI Qiu-shi;YANG Shi-qiu;MA Xu-jun;WANG Hui-chun;ZHANG Hao;QIU Xian-qin(Resource Plant Research Institute,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China;Institute of Flowers,Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Kunming 650205,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学资源植物研究院,昆明650504 [2]云南省农业科学院花卉研究所,昆明650205

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2024年第10期2224-2232,共9页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：云南省科技厅农业重大科技专项(202102AE090052);云南省重大科技专项计划(202102AE090001);“兴滇英才支持计划”项目;云南省创新团队选拔专项(202305AS350002)。

摘　　要：[目的]月季霜霉病会导致植株叶片大量脱落,对温室中的月季切花造成很大威胁。该病害发生所需的“中温高湿”环境条件容易在温室中形成,特别是在秋冬季节。分析不同常见切花月季品种霜霉病的发生与温室环境因子的关系,建立能够预测霜霉病发生的统计模型,为切花月季霜霉病害的生态防治提供理论依据。[方法]通过室内接种月季霜霉菌(Peronospora sparsa),并对2022—2023年云南省昆明市晋宁区宝峰基地栽培的‘紫霞仙子’‘粉红雪山’‘洛神’‘骄傲’4个切花月季品种霜霉病的发病情况和温室环境因子进行系统调查,采用Logistic回归、多元线性回归和混合效应模型等分析方法构建病害预测模型。[结果]室内接种试验结果表明,月季霜霉菌的侵染发病温度为5~30℃,最适宜温度为18~20℃;霜霉菌侵染发病的最低湿度为75%,最适湿度为>90%。数据表明,温室环境因子对霜霉病的发生有明显影响,病情指数与发病前3 d、前5 d、前7 d和前15 d的侵染适宜度累计值呈线性关系。其中,‘紫霞仙子’和‘粉红雪山’品种的拟合效果好,‘洛神’和‘骄傲’品种的拟合效果不佳。再增加品种因素作为自变量,将4个品种混合在一起时,拟合混合效应模型的效果都极显著,最优模型的贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)为89.189,标准差为0.023,RMSE为0.041。[结论]发病前3~15 d的环境条件对病害的影响可以用侵染适宜度模型来描述。发病前15 d的侵染适宜度累计值对病害发生的影响最大,以上3种模型效果都显著。因此,在实际生产过程中,可提前7~15 d根据环境因子的适宜度变化,进行基于模型的预测分析,以更好地防治病害。【Objective】Downy mildew of rose can cause severe premature defoliation of rose plants,which poses a great threat to cut rose in greenhouses.The‘moderate temperature and high humidity'environmental conditions required for downy mildew occurrence are common in the greenhouse,especially in autumn and winter.The study aimed to identify and model the relationship between the occurrence of downy mildew in different common cut rose varieties and greenhouse environmental factors in order to provide insight for ecologically friendly management of the disease and to build statistical models to predict downy mildew occurrence.【Method】Under indoor conditions,Peronospora sparsa was inoculated in rose leaves.The incidence of downy mildew and the environmental factors were investigated in four cut rose varieties‘Zixiaxianzi'‘Fenhongxueshan'‘Luoshen'and‘Jiaoao'cultivated in the greenhouses of Baofeng Base,Jinning District,Yunnan Province from 2022 to 2023.Disease prediction models were built using logistic regression,multiple linear regression,and mixed models.【Result】In a temperature range of 5-30℃,downy mildew symptoms were observed,and the most suitable disease development temperature range was 18-20℃.The lowest humidity of infection of P.sparsa was 75%,and the optimal range was greater than 90%.Data analyses showed that environmental factors had a significant impact on the occurrence of downy mildew in cut roses,and observed disease indices were linearly related to the cumulative infection favorability of environment of the previous 3 days,5 days,7 days,and 15 days.Among them,‘Zixiaxianzi'and‘Fenhongxueshan'had a significant fitting,while‘Luoshen'and‘Jiaoao'varieties had a less significant model fitting.However,add variety factor as independent variable,models for the pooled data of all four varieties were highly significant,the optimal model had a Bayesian information criterion(BIC)of 89.189,a standard deviation of 0.023 and a RMSE of 0.041.【Conclusion】The environmental conditions 3 to

关 键 词：切花月季霜霉病 环境适宜度 预测模型 逻辑斯递回归 

分 类 号：S436.8[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]