基于贝叶斯网络的智能变电站二次系统可靠性评估与动态更新方法  

Reliability evaluation and dynamic update method for secondary system of smart substation based on Bayesian network

作　　者：付威 甘子松 闫云琦 陈颖[2] 晋龙兴 朱丹龙 FU Wei;GAN Zisong;YAN Yunqi;CHEN Ying;JIN Longxing;ZHU Danlong(Shenzhen Power Grid Utility Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518048,China;Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳供电局有限公司,广东深圳518048 [2]清华大学电机系,北京100084

出　　处：《供用电》2025年第1期79-85,95,共8页Distribution & Utilization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金企业创新发展联合基金项目(U22B2096)。

摘　　要：实时、准确获取变电站设备可靠性参数对变电站及电力系统的安全稳定运行具有重要意义。针对智能变电站二次拓扑结构复杂、可靠性评估难以自动实现的问题,建立基于贝叶斯网络的可靠性实时演算模型,实现对二次设备和系统可靠性的准确评估。首先,基于变电站配置描述(substation configuration description,SCD)文件描述的面向通用对象的变电站事件(generic object oriented substation event,GOOSE)网络和物理网络拓扑,建立表征变电站二次回路信息-物理系统的贝叶斯网络,刻画通信网络和GOOSE网络的耦合影响机制。然后,基于告警信息的语义分析,提出基于设备告警的节点状态更新机制。最后,利用贝叶斯网络的双向推理特性,综合考虑后验概率和设备老化导致的可靠性变化,总结可靠性动态更新计算方法。算例分析表明所提方法可以实现系统信息-物理耦合功能可靠性的动态评估,正确识别系统检修、设备故障的影响范围,并根据系统告警信息动态更新系统可靠性参数,适用于智能变电站二次系统长期运行可靠性评估。The real-time and accurate acquisition of reliability parameters for substation equipment is of great significance for the safe and stable operation of substations and power systems.To address the challenges of the complex secondary topology structure of smart substations and the difficulty in automatically assessing reliability,we establish a real-time reliability calculation model based on Bayesian networks,which realizes the accurate evaluation of the reliability of secondary equipment and systems.Firstly,based on the GOOSE network and physical network topology described in the SCD file,we build a Bayesian network that represents the information-physical system of the substation secondary circuit,depicting the coupling influence mechanism between the communication network and the GOOSE network.Then,through semantic analysis of alarm information,we propose a node state update mechanism based on equipment alarms.Finally,utilizing the bidirectional reasoning characteristics of Bayesian networks,we develop a comprehensive reliability dynamic update calculation method by considering posterior probabilities and reliability changes due to equipment aging.Case study shows that the proposed method can calculate the dynamic functional reliability of the system’s information-physical coupling functions,correctly identify the impact scope of system maintenance and equipment failures,and realize the dynamic update of reliability parameters based on system alarm information.The proposed method is suitable for long-term reliability assessment.

关 键 词：可靠性 贝叶斯网络 动态更新 智能变电站 信息-物理系统 

分 类 号：TM76[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]