基于极值理论的港湾式公交停靠站交通冲突研究  

Research on Traffic Conflict at Harbor Bus Stop Based on Extreme Value Theory

作　　者：葛鹏 陈梅 GE Peng;CHEN Mei(School of Transportation Engineering,Guizhou Institute of Technology,Guiyang 550008,China;Department of Discipline Construction and Management,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550008,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州理工学院交通工程学院,贵阳550008 [2]贵州财经大学发展规划处,贵阳550008

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2024年第6期1063-1067,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：贵州省教育厅自然科学研究项目(黔教合KY字[2022]357号)。

摘　　要：文中结合视频数据、VISSIM轨迹数据,使用SSAM交通冲突分析软件提取交通冲突PET(后侵入时间)指标,构建超阈值极值模型,标定了公交车与机动车、公交车与电动自行车的PET冲突阈值,构建了碰撞预测模型.结果表明:对于公交车与机动车、公交车与电动自行车的冲突两类冲突而言,其阈值分别为0.66和0.55 s,在发生交通冲突时,产生碰撞事故的可能性为5.04%和9.30%,事故的严重程度分别为轻微和严重.Combined with video data and VISSIM trajectory data,the traffic conflict PET(post-intrusion time)index was extracted by using SSAM traffic conflict analysis software,and an over-threshold extreme model was constructed.The PET collision thresholds of buses and motor vehicles,buses and electric bicycles were calibrated,and collision prediction models were constructed.The results show that the thresholds are 0.66 s and 0.55 s for the conflicts between buses and motor vehicles and between buses and electric bicycles,respectively.In the event of a traffic conflict,the probability of a collision accident is 5.04%and 9.30%,and the severity of the accident is slight and serious respectively.

关 键 词：城市交通 交通冲突 PET指标 极值模型 重现水平 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]