特朗普第二任期美国涉台政策调整前瞻  

Prospective Analysis of the U.S.Taiwan Policy in Trump s Second Term

作　　者：叶晓迪 张家宝 YE Xiaodi;ZHANG Jiabao(School of Global and Area Studies/Institute of International Relations,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学区域国别学院(国际关系研究院),广东广州510006

出　　处：《闽台关系研究》2024年第4期52-66,共15页Studies on Fujian-Taiwan Relations

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CGJ009)。

摘　　要：随着美国对华战略竞争态势不断增强,美国操作台湾问题的策略与手法将出现新的变化。特别是在“特朗普回归”的背景下,其第二任期美国涉台政策将主要受到体系层次、美国国内层次、两岸层次与个人层次的影响,具体因素包括:中美结构性矛盾凸显、美国国会“挺台”势力增强、民进党当局“倚外谋独”倾向明显,以及特朗普善变的交易型执政风格。在这些因素的叠加影响下,特朗普第二任期的涉台政策将朝着重启极限施压、回归单边介入、挂钩政经议题、发动认知攻势等4个方向调整。上述调整方向会产生中美安全困境加剧、地缘问题多点并发、两岸冷对抗态势凸显等多重风险。对此,中国应该保持战略定力,兼顾政策工具的灵活性和针对性,采取多元对策化解台海局势上的“特朗普冲击”,以及特朗普与赖清德的联合挑衅。With the increasing strategic competition of the United States against China,new changes will appear in the strategies and techniques of the Taiwan question.Especially in the background of the return of Trump,the American Taiwan policy in his second term will mainly be influenced bythe system level,the U.S.domestic level,the cross-Strait level and the individual level.Specific factors include the prominent structural contradictions between China and the United States,the increasing power of"supporting Taiwan"in the U.S.Congress,the obvious tendency of the DPP administration s"relying on foreign powers to seek independence",and Trump s fickle transactional governance style.Under the combined influence of these factors,Trump s Taiwan-related policies in his second term will be adjusted in four directions:resuming extreme pressure,returning to unilateral intervention,linking them to political and economic issues,and launching a cognitive offensive.The above adjustment direction will produce multiple risks such as intensified security difficulties between China and the United States,multi-point geopolitical issues,and prominent cold confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.In this regard,China should maintain its strategic focus,take into account the flexibility and pertinacity of its policy tools,and adopt multiple measures to resolve the"Trump shock"in the situation across the Taiwan Straits,as well as the joint provocation between Trump and Lai Cing-te.

关 键 词：美台关系 涉台政策 台湾问题 中美关系 特朗普 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]