基于Budyko理论的长江典型流域径流演变与归因分析  

Runoff evolution and attribution analysis of typical river basins in the Yangtze River based on Budyko theory

作　　者：宋阁庆 马晓燕 王茂林 袁春慧 杨陈 王飞[2] 邓悦 Song Geqing;Ma Xiaoyan;Wang Maolin;Yuan Chunhui;Yang chen;Wang Fei;Deng Yue(Gansu Hydrometric Station,Lanzhou 730030,China;School of Energy and Power Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,China;Fufeng County Water Conservancy Workstation,Baoji,Shaanxi 722999,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省水文站,兰州730030 [2]兰州理工大学能源与动力工程学院,兰州730050 [3]扶风县水利工作站,陕西宝鸡722999

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第1期172-180,共9页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：甘肃水利科学试验研究及技术推广计划(甘水建管发[2022]59号);国家自然科学基金资助(42367010)。

摘　　要：[目的]探究变化环境下的长江典型流域径流演变和驱动因素,量化气候变化及下垫面变化对流域径流变化的贡献率,以期为白水江流域水资源优化配置和流域治理提供科学依据。[方法]采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、交叉小波分析和Budyko理论等研究方法,分析了白水江流域1970-2016年的年径流量演变规律及其影响因素。[结果](1)白水江流域年径流量呈显著(p<0.05)下降趋势,径流和降水突变年份均在1994年。(2)白水江流域年径流量与年降水量呈正相关性关系,径流深在影响期(1995-2016年)相比基准期(1970-1994年)对年降水量最敏感,其次为潜在蒸散发量和下垫面参数。(3)量化解析了下垫面、年降水量和潜在蒸散发量对白水江流域径流的贡献率,其中,下垫面贡献率为46.14%,降水量贡献率为41.02%,潜在蒸散发量贡献率为12.84%。[结论]1970-2016年白水江流域年径流量和年降水量均呈下降趋势,白水江流域径流的驱动因素是由于气候和人类活动的综合影响。降水是导致白水江流域径流减少的主要气候因素,下垫面变化是白水江流域径流减少的一个关键因素。[Objective]The aims of this study are to explore the runoff evolution and driving factors in the typical Yangtze River basin under changing environment,to quantify the contribution rate of climate change and underlying surface change to the runoff change in the basin,and to provide scientific basis for the optimal allocation of water resources and basin management in the Baishuijiang River basin.[Method]Mann-Kendall trend test,cross wavelet analysis and Budyko theory were used to explore the evolution pattern of annual runoff and its influencing factors in Baishui River Basin from 1970 to 2016.[Results](1)The annual runoff in the Baishui River Basin showed a significant(p<0.05)decreasing trend,and the year of sudden changes in runoff and precipitation was all in 1994.(2)There was a positive correlation between annual runoff and annual precipitation in the Baishui River Basin.The runoff depth was the most sensitive to annual precipitation in the influence period(1995-2016)compared with the base period(1970-1994),followed by potential evapotranspiration and underlying surface parameters.(3)The contribution rates of underlying surface,annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to runoff in Baishui River Basin were quantitatively analyzed.Among them,the contribution rate of underlying surface was 46.14%,the contribution rate of precipitation was 41.02%,and the contribution rate of potential evapotranspiration was 12.84%.[Conclusion]The annual runoff and annual precipitation in the Baishui River Basin showed a downward trend from 1970 to 2016.The driving factors of runoff in the Baishui River Basin were due to the combined effects of climate and human activities.Precipitation was the main climatic factor leading to the decrease of runoff in Baishui River Basin,and the change of underlying surface was a key factor for the decrease of runoff in Baishui River Basin.

关 键 词：Budyko理论 径流 归因分析 白水江流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]