基于日尺度SPEI的黄土高原干旱时空变化特征及影响因素分析  

Spatial-temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of drought in the Loess Plateau based on daily scale SPEI

作　　者：杨广 史海静[1,2] 姜艳敏 吴友福 王椰 李冀 Yang Guang;Shi Haijing;Jiang Yanmin;Wu Youfu;Wang Ye;Li Ji(College of Soil and Water Conservation Science and Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,CAS&MWR,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水土保持科学与工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第2期244-254,共11页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：西部青年学者项目(XAB2020YN04);国家自然科学基金(41501055);国家科技基础条件平台建设项目(2005DKA32300)。

摘　　要：[目的]探究黄土高原地区气象干旱的时空变化特征及其影响因素,以期为该地区的干旱监测、旱作农业粮食生产、水资源管理及生态恢复建设提供科学支撑。[方法]基于黄土高原地区119个站点1957—2019年逐日气象资料,使用FAO Penman-Monteith公式计算了日尺度潜在蒸散发及标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),并采用Theil-Sen Median斜率估计和Mann-Kendall趋势分析,探讨了干旱天数、干旱事件发生次数和强度的分布特征及变化趋势。同时,使用皮尔逊相关系数分析气象因子与干旱指标的关系,并结合土地利用类型转移矩阵探讨了人类活动对气象干旱的影响。[结果](1)日尺度SPEI在识别干旱天数、干旱事件发生次数和强度方面比月尺度SPEI更为精确;(2) 1957—2019年黄土高原西北地区干旱事件发生次数增加,大部分区域干旱强度呈现不断增加的趋势,不同类型干旱的天数有所降低;(3)黄土高原东南部和西北部地区存在明显的变干趋势,而北部和南部地区则呈现出湿润化趋势;(4)气象因子与干旱指标之间存在中等相关关系,土地利用/地表覆盖对黄土高原地区的气象干旱产生了一定程度的影响。[结论]黄土高原地区的气象干旱受气候因素和人类活动的双重影响,其时空变化特征复杂。研究结果为该地区的干旱监测与管理提供了重要的科学依据。[Objective]The aims of this study are to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought and its influencing factors in the Loess Plateau region,and to provide scientific support for drought monitoring,dry-crop agricultural food production,water resource management and ecological restoration construction in this region.[Methods]Based on the day-by-day meteorological data of 119 stations in the Loess Plateau region from 1957 to 2019,the daily-scale potential evapotranspiration(PET)and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)were calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith formula.Theil-Sen Median slope estimation and Mann-Kendall trend analysis were used to explore the distribution characteristics and trends of the number of drought days,the number and intensity of drought events.Meanwhile,Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and drought indicators.The impact of human activities on meteorological drought was explored in combination with the land use type transfer matrix.[Results](1)The daily-scale SPEI was more accurate than the monthly-scale SPEI in identifying the number of drought days,the number of drought events and intensity.(2)The number of drought events increased in the northwestern part of the Loess Plateau from 1957 to 2019,and the intensity of drought in most regions showed an increasing trend,with the number of days of different types of droughts decreasing.(3)There was a clear trend of drying in the southeastern and northwestern regions of the Loess Plateau,while the northern and southern regions show a trend of wetting.(4)There was a moderate correlation between meteorological factors and drought indicators,and the land use/surface cover affected meteorological droughts to a certain extent in the Loess Plateau region.[Conclusions]Meteorological drought in the Loess Plateau region is influenced by both climatic factors and human activities,and its spatial and temporal changes are characterized

关 键 词：黄土高原 日尺度SPEI 气象干旱 Theil-Sen Median斜率估计 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]