绿色发展下农业经济增长与面源污染关系研究——基于安庆市的实证  

Research on relationship between agricultural economic growth and non-point source pollution under green development based on empirical evidence from Anqing City

作　　者：胡梦娟 HU Mengjuan(Modern Business College,Anqing Vocational and Technical College,Anqing 246003,China)

机构地区：[1]安庆职业技术学院现代商务学院,安徽安庆246003

出　　处：《仲恺农业工程学院学报》2025年第1期33-42,共10页Journal of Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering

基　　金：2022年度安徽省高校哲学社会科学研究重点研究项目(2022AH052594);2021年度安徽省高校哲学社会科学研究重点研究项目(SK2021A1013)。

摘　　要：绿色发展是贯彻新发展理念、构建新发展格局的必然要求,而农业面源污染严重阻碍了农业全面绿色转型.为推进安庆市农业经济的可持续发展,选取2001-2022年安庆市人均农业产值与农业面源污染4项指标数据,基于环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve,EKC)理论,通过线性、二次、三次函数模型拟合,建立最优模型,剖析安庆市农业经济增长与农业面源污染的关系.实证结果表明:化肥施用量和农用柴油施用量、农药施用量、农膜施用量与人均农业产值分别呈现显著倒“U”型、“N”型和倒“N”型曲线关系且拐点在研究时序中均已到来,在此基础上提出健全制度体系、加大投入补贴、树立绿色理念、科学精准治理、发展生态农业的建议,协同推进安庆市经济高质量发展和生态高水平保护.Green development is an inevitable requirement for implementing the new development concept and constructing a new development pattern.However agricultural non-point source pollution seriously hinders the comprehensive green transformation of agriculture.To promote the sustainable development of agricultural economy in Anqing City,data on four indicators of per capita agricultural output value and agricultural non-point source pollution in Anqing City from 2001 to 2022 were selected.Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)theory,an optimal model was established by fitting linear,quadratic,and cubic function models to analyze the relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural non-point source pollution in Anqing City.The empirical results show that there are significant inverted“U”-shaped,“N”-shaped,and inverted“N”-shaped curve relationships between fertilizer application,agricultural diesel application,pesticide application,agricultural film application,and per capita agricultural output value,respectively.The inflection points have all arrived in the research time series.Based on this,suggestions are proposed to improve the institutional system,increase investment subsidies,establish green concepts,scientifically and accurately govern,and develop ecological agriculture,in order to promote high-quality economic development and high-level ecological protection in Anqing City.

关 键 词：绿色发展 农业面源污染 农业经济增长 环境库兹涅茨曲线(Environmental Kuznets Curve EKC) 安庆市 

分 类 号：F323.4[经济管理—产业经济]