有限理性与外汇投机的市场效应  

The Market Effects of Limited Reason and Speculation on Foreign Exchange:

作　　者：余维彬[1] 刘华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院研究生院财贸系

出　　处：《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》2002年第6期75-77,共3页Journal of Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

摘　　要：由于知识与信息的不足,外汇投机者很难形成水平确定并且个体相同的基本汇率趋势,这使得具有稳定汇率功能的回归预期难以形成;外汇投机者理性、非理性的集体投机行动,都可以对汇率产生重大影响;由于外汇投机产生并非对汇率基本趋势偏离进行修正的重大影响,因此外汇投机通常对汇率起非稳定性作用。1. Owing to lack of insight and information, foreign exchange speculators have difficulties to form a basic tendency of exchange rate on a definite level and shared by all individuals, which makes it hard to ensure the return expected when the exchange rate is stable; 2. Both reasonable and unreasonable collective speculations of foreign exchange speculators can exert significant influence on exchange rate; 3. Since foreign exchange speculation does not significantly affect the amendment of alleviated basic tendency of exchange rate, it usually does not function as a stabilizer of exchange rate.

关 键 词：外汇市场 预期理论 有限理性 外汇投机 市场效应 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]