重估测谎决策的Bayes推断试验  

AN ASSESSMENT OF DECISION - MAKING IN DECEPTION DETECTION: A TRIAL OF THE BAYESIAN THEORY

作　　者：乐竟泓[1] 吴喜娜[1] 曹宁宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学心理学系,上海200062

出　　处：《心理科学》2002年第6期656-659,共4页Journal of Psychological Science

摘　　要：谎与非谎的情绪反应没有独立的客观标准 ,以Polygrapy构成技术的测谎缺乏稳定的效度。本研究尝试运用Bayes方法分析一项实测案例 ,计算两名被试的低显性测谎反应结果 ,使准确判决有谎的概率由机会水平 5 0 %分别调整到可明确分辩的 74 %和 4 9% ,从决策分析角度为改良测谎程序和提高测谎效度提供了一种新的操作思路。The validity of polygraph testing is unstable because there are no independent objective psychophysiological indexes on lies or non-lies. A critical re-analysis of polygraphers judgements was undertaken with the method of Bayesian inference applied to re evaluating the data from two subjects in a field study. The accuracy of detection in guilty suspects was sensibly re-adjusted to the rates of 74% and 49% from the prior probabilities of 50 % . A decision method of usefulness of polygraph testing was defined td improve the validity of detection.

关 键 词：测谎决策 Bayes推断试验 测谎效度 Polygraph技术 测谎判决 混合问题技术 测谎技术 测谎判决 

分 类 号：B848[哲学宗教—心理学]