变动中的缅甸政局与中缅关系分析  

The Changing Political Situation in Myanmar and an Analysis of China-Myanmar Relations

作　　者：蔡鹏鸿[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院外交所

出　　处：《国际关系研究》2015年第4期102-113,156-157,共14页Journal of International Relations

摘　　要：缅甸即将迎来新一轮大选,这不仅是让现政府和执政党接受选民的检验和评判,而且也是缅甸政治改革能否顺利进入新阶段的考验,自然会对中缅关系的发展产生影响。本文认为,缅甸前期政改取得进展是缅甸自身政治发展的成果,而不是外来因素促成,同缅甸军人实际上拥有的开放和包容战略有关,他们经长期谋划,精心制定宪法,使之成为国家政治发展方向的政治动力。缅甸近年来继续受到美国和西方压力,以及国内少数民族地区动乱的纷扰,具有改变现状、同中国维护良好关系的愿望。因此,中国应该因势利导,继续实施对缅睦邻友好政策,加强务实合作,共同建设休戚与共的利益共同体和命运共同体。Myanmar is about to usher in a new round of elections,which is not only to make the current administration and the ruling party take the voters' scrutiny and judgment,it will test whether political reform in Myanmar could enter a new phase smoothly and have an impact on relations between China and Myanmar. This paper argues that the progress of earlier political reform in Myanmar is the result of political development in Myanmar itself,rather than a product of external factors. It has something to do with open and inclusive strategies that the Myanmar military effectively have,they rewrote the Constitution elaborately by long-term planning,make it become political power of the direction of the country's political development. Myanmar has been under the pressure from the United States and the West at large and stuck in the civil unrest in ethnic minority areas in recent years,so it has the desire to change the status quo and maintain good relations with China. Therefore,China should grasp this opportunity to continue conduct good-neighborly and friendly policy towards Myanmar,strengthen pragmatic cooperation,and jointly build a community of interests and a community of destiny.

关 键 词：缅甸 中缅关系 周边外交 昂山素季 

分 类 号：D822.333.7[政治法律—政治学] D733.7[政治法律—外交学]