气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响——以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例  

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff of Continental River in Arid Areas——Taking Kensiwate Hydrological Station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin as an Example

作　　者：陈伏龙[1,2] 王怡璇[1] 吴泽斌[3] 冯平[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832003 [3]水利部办公厅,北京100053

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2015年第4期692-697,共6页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51069011);天津大学国家重点实验室开放基金(HESS-1405)

摘　　要：近55 a来,新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站年径流量呈增加趋势,为了研究气候变化和人类活动影响下肯斯瓦特径流的变化规律,利用肯斯瓦特水文站1955—2010年数据资料,采用线性回归、趋势分析及滑动平均等方法,分析肯斯瓦特站的径流和气候变化特征,并运用Mann-Kendall和累积距平法识别出径流变化过程中1995年为其突变年份,降水量变化过程中突变年份为1997年,而蒸发量突变年份为1996年。利用统计分析法分析了1955—1995年和1996—2010年2个时期的累积径流量、降水量和蒸发量与年份之间的线性关系。采用累积量斜率变化率比较法,计算得出肯斯瓦特站降水量增加对径流量增加的贡献率为59.64%,蒸发量增加对径流量增加的贡献率为31.83%,人类活动对径流量增加的贡献率为8.53%,表明气候变化是影响径流量变化的主要因素。Climate change has become a global issue of common concern to people. With climate change and human activity aggravation,water shortage has become a worldwide problem. Analysis the influence factors of the basin runoff change,quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff has the vital significance for reasonable allocation of river basin water resources and ecological construction. In recent 55 years,the annual runoff of Kensiwate hydrological station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin shows increasing trend. To analyze the evolvement rules of the runoff in Kensiwate hydrological station under the conditions of climate change and human activities,this study detected the variation characteristics of runoff and climate changes using linear regression,trend analysis and moving average on the basis of the annual data from 1955 to 2010. In addition,the break points of runoff,precipitation and evaporation were detected using Mann-Kendall's test and the cumulative departure method,which were 1995,1997 and 1996,respectively. The linear relationship between years and cumulative runoff,cumulative precipitation,cumulative evaporation from 1955 to 1995 and from 1996 to 2010 was analyzed by statistical analysis methods. The results of cumulative slope rate comparison method showed that the precipitation,evaporation and human activities' contribution to runoff increase accounted for 59. 64%,31. 83%and 8. 53%,respectively. According to the research results,climate change was the main factor of runoff variation.

关 键 词：径流量 降水量 蒸发量 气候变化 人类活动 肯斯瓦特水文站 玛纳斯河流域 新疆 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]